Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• None of Note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.3% gain in Sept.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• (SNDK) 8-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Collins, Fed's Logan speaking, IEA monthly report, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (MOD) shareholders meeting, (RVTY) investor day, (SYY) annual meeting and the (FLUT) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -7.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.2 -4.2
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 32.6% of Issues Advancing, 65.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.16 +3.6%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$15.4M
  
• 40 New 52-Week Highs, 144 New Lows
• 44.9% (-2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.9 +.5

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 5.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30th 2.0% unch.
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 3.0% unch.
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 2.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 8.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30th 10.0% -4.0 percentage points

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 126.3 +1.5%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 71.0 -2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 50.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 471.0 -22.0 basis points
• France Sovereign CDS 87.3 +1.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 261.1 +.1%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 137.7 -.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) +6.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.7 -7.4%
• Vix 17.6 +.7%
• Total Put/Call .91 +4.6%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.5 -.75 basis point.   
• China Sovereign CDS 34.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 90.90 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%. 
• Crude Oil 85.50/bbl. -1.2%. 
• Gold 3,987.50 USD/t oz. -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.01 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.10 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.2 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.98% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.91% -5.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 +2.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.19%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.41%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.69%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and metals & mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Positive Earnings Outlooks, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.2 -.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.4 -.01% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .35 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 -5.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.30 -2.3% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.4 -.1% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 57.2 +1.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.9 -1.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 74.0 +.4

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.6 -.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.2 -1.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +27.1% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 416.47 +.06:  Growth Rate +27.0% unch., P/E 18.3 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.32% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,107.26 +.59: Growth Rate +64.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.0 +.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +9.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 25.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.5 +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 87.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.7%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.1% unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.5% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.99% n/a
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.99 n/a

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 60.7% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 43.9%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +930 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +20 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +182 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/energy sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.0% 2) Foods -.7% 3) Restaurants -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SE, YETI, APAM, NTES, VIA, RGTI, GO, LEGN, COGT, TTEK, MIR and SEPN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AAP 2) ARDX 3) LFMD 4) MPT 5) MET

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) INVZ 2) DAVA 3) MNTK 4) VLN 5) CSTE

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLU 3) IXC 4) DRAM 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +3.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +7.4% 2) Semis +7.4% 3) AI/Innovation +7.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FOSL, CRWV, AXTI, AZTA, CAPR, AAOI, NBIS, SNDK, BE, REZI, SHAZ, FRVO, DELL, LMRI, LITE, MXL, MU, ARM, LGN, EQPT, GLXY, AMKR, ELMT, CECO, FTH, STX, CRDO, AEHR, SONO, MRVL, COHR, ERAS, CIEN, DOCN, ONTO, FUN, FLY, ORCL, MPWR, APLD, SITM, HMH, AMD, TSEM, CLS, ZETA, PSIX, GDS, CORZ, VRT, APEI, LB, INTC, HNRG, ASTS, DCTH, GMRS, IREN, WULF, LSCC, NAMS, HIMS, FROG, MKSI, IBKR, PRAA, TDW, ZM, RKLB, AVGO, AII, FIS, AXGN, BCAX, WTTR, ETOR, AXSM, PUBM, AKAM, ATEX, SANM, SENS, QLYS, TSM, ROCK, WRBY, NVDA, GCT, DGII, PLXS, LUNR, MRCY, DRTS, NET, DOX, CAT, VCYT, IFS, TTD, ZBRA, AXON, ALNY, TPC, CWST, PRAX, JCI, PKX, EXPE, FRNM, ODD and SKM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) URNM 2) VTRS 3) UMC 4) RUM 5) KGC 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CRWV 2) MU 3) FOSL 4) MRVL 5) STX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) ARKK 3) XLV 4) SIX 5) AMLP

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume