Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as diminishing economic fear, seasonal strength, bargain-hunting and buyout speculation offsets rising eurozone sovereign debt angst, China inflation worries, Korean Peninsula concerns and rising financial sector pessimism. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,189.40 -.61%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,189.40 -.61%
  
• DJIA 11,092.00 -.80%
  
• NASDAQ 2,534.56 +.80%
  
• Russell 2000 732.73 +1.65%
  
• Wilshire 5000 12,405.39 -.21%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 550.20 +.46%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 597.35 -1.25%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 714.65 -.70%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 952.53 +.04%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 637.90 +1.19%
  
• Transports 4,879.25 +.81%
  
• Utilities 392.64 -1.68%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 45.17 -2.68%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,011.53 +.23%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 856.99 +.11%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 763.0 -.91%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +106,973 +2.66%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +281 +142
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 36.0 -23.4%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position n/a
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest n/a
  
• Total Put/Call .85 +2.47%
  
• OEX Put/Call 3.23 +186.55%
  
• ISE Sentiment 126.0 -.79%
  
• NYSE Arms 2.01 +240.68%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 22.22 +17.22%
• S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index n/a
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.63 +6.31%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 9,531.65 +1.82%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.813 Trillion +.5%
  
• AAII % Bulls 47.40 +18.50%
  
• AAII % Bears 24.68 -24.06%
  

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 301.14 -.50%
  
• Crude Oil 83.75 +1.06%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 220.80 -.60%
  
• Natural Gas 4.41 +4.94%
  
• Heating Oil 231.55 +.96%
  
• Gold 1,364.50 +.35%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals 228.67 -.76%
  
• Copper 374.95 -2.54%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 329.67 USD/Ton unch.
  
• China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,364 Yuan/Ton -.14%
• S&P GSCI Agriculture 442.0 -1.65%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 126.40 +1.77%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +24.10 -5.6 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 58.7% chance of no change, 41.3% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/14
• US Dollar Index 80.38 +2.20%
  
• Yield Curve 236.0 unch.
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.87% unch.
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.297 Trillion unch.
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.11 +3.87%
• California Municipal Credit Default Swap 315.60 +9.58%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 180.33 +10.63%
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14% +1 basis point
  
• TED Spread 14.0 -1 basis point
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 95.62 +5.06%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 138.08 +30.27%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 223.74 +2.36%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 265.0 +5 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $1.880 Trillion unch.
  
• Business Loans 604.30 -.46%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 436,000 -1.7%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.3% -10 basis points
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.40% +1 basis point
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 728.80 +2.13%
  
• ABC Consumer Confidence -47 unch.
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.60% -10 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $2.86/gallon -.02/gallon
  
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 3.0% above normal
• Baltic Dry Index 2,200 +1.66%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 -11.11%
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 235,999 +1.34%
  
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 89.75 -1.77%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +2.30%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -1.24%

Leading Sectors

• Disk Drives +3.90%
• Coal +2.86%
• Semis +2.72%
• Airlines +2.16%
• Gaming +1.88%

Lagging Sectors

• Education -2.79%
• Steel -2.93%
• Banks -3.27%
  
• Homebuilders -3.37%
• Oil Tankers -3.98%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (-.78%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold -2.11% 2) Steel -1.79% 3) Homebuilders -1.39%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• STD, BCS, TEF, CEO, PBR, CETV, EWP, VE, PUK, EWQ and DFZ
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AFL 2) TTM 3) BCS 4) STD 5) BK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MHS 2) MS 3) BA 4) GYMB 5) DY
  

Friday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.0 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 106.0 -2.25 basis points.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.18%
  
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• None of note
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth (+1.94%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +3.45% 2) Airlines +2.90% 3) Semis +2.41%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KB, CREE, ACTG, CISG, HRBN, AMZN, CSTR, GES, TIF, TTM, DDMX, WPRT, TGA, BONT, SIRO, GTLS, OPEN, ULTA, ITRI, TRLG, SNPS and ARBA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MOO 2) TIF 3) TOL 4) XME 5) VRX
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JEC 2) STI 3) BODY 4) AEE 5) TIF