Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -5.9% 2) Airlines -3.0% 3) Gold & Silver -2.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ENVA, SAIC, SC, PI, LSCC, KPTI, MNRO, ARCT, TNET, SIX, TPIC, ARCB, TBIO, ATRC, FIXX, MASI, ONEM, ADP, BCLI, CNK, HA, BTAI, VSLR, RUN, GWB, R, STRA, BE and ALEC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KODK 2) XLP 3) EBAY 4) MET 5) AEO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) STX 2) NCMI 3) NCLH 4) SONO  5) RTX
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers +2.7% 2) Shipping +2.5% 3) Retail +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KODK, TUP, LB, BCO, FEYE, AAN, DLX, TENB, PLT, IAA, CSGP, AMD, WING, INSG, SMG, TCRR, CHRW, BYD, CRS, BEAT, REXR, PRPL and PKI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KODK 2) ADMP 3) LB 4) WELL 5) TPX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MGM 2) HAFC 3) WFC 4) TMUS 5) CL
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5%  to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.25 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.33 -.03%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.27%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (AAN)/.82
  • (ADP)/.96
  • (BA)/-2.63
  • (BSX)/-.02
  • (BCO)/-.12
  • (BG)/1.31
  • (CME)/1.64
  • (DISH)/.57
  • (ETN)/.53
  • (FSS)/.31
  • (FDP)/.63
  • (GD)/2.17
  • (GE)/-.09
  • (GM)/-1.76
  • (HES)/-1.12
  • (LHX)/2.58
  • (NSC)/1.36
  • (OC)/.28
  • (R)/-1.31
  • (SMG)/3.43
  • (SHOP)/.01
  • (SPOT)/-.36 
  • (TROW)/2.03
  • (UTHR)/3.28
  • (WING)/.29
After the Close:
  • (AEM)/.17
  • (NLY)/.22
  • (APA)/-1.01
  • (ADM)/.51
  • (AVB)/2.27
  • (CERN)/.61
  • (CAKE)/-1.10
  • (CGNX)/.11
  • (CTSH)/.69
  • (CCI)/1.43
  • (KLIC)/.15
  • (LRCX)/3.91
  • (ORLY)/4.10
  • (PYPL)/.88
  • (PPC)/.12
  • (QCOM)/.71
  • (RJF)/.97
  • (NOW)/1.02
  • (SFM)/.38
  • (RGR)/1.23
  • (TDOC)/-.22
  • (URI)/1.93
  • (WERN)/.40
  • (YUMC)/.23
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for June is estimated at -$75.4B versus -$74.3B in May.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for June is estimated to fall -.5% versus a -1.2% decline in May. 
  • Retail Inventories MoM for June is estimated to fall -2.7% versus a -6.1% decline in May.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for June is estimated to rise +15.0% versus a +44.3% gain in May.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -171,270 barrels versus a +4,892,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,195,640 barrels versus a -1,802,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +533,820 barrels versus a +1,074,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.37% versus a -.2% decline prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at .00%-.25%.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The FOMC press conference, House Hearing on Internet Platforms, UK Housing Data report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Recession Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Oil Decline, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.2 -2.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.81 -.42%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.09 +2.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.8 -1.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125 .0 -20.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .80 +29.0%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -23.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.74 +.64%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 862.77 +.35%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.27 +2.58%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 146.75 +2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  74.58 -.34%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 189.38 +3.21%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.72 +.57%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.5 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  96.25 -2.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.36 -.41%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.
  • Yield Curve 47.75 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.26 USD/Metric Tonne +.98%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 236.2 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 147.60 +9.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.9 +5.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -77 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -3.6% 2) Steel -2.8% 3) Computer Hardware -1.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • JNPR, AMG, COWN, SSD, VSLR, BCEL, CNC, HUN, OMC, RUN, NCR, BEN, EHTH, TERP, WDR, USAC, VMC, HPQ, MMM, ST, SPWR, MLM, PRLB, TBIO, RDFN, ALEC, FFIV, BCOV, LW, AWI, NOV and BTAI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) LQD 2) MMM 3) XLP 4) MCD 5) HOG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TLRD 2) RDFN 3) MHK 4) WINS  5) TYL
Charts: