Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Recession Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Oil Decline, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.2 -2.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.81 -.42%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.09 +2.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.8 -1.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125 .0 -20.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .80 +29.0%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -23.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.74 +.64%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 862.77 +.35%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.27 +2.58%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 146.75 +2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  74.58 -.34%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 189.38 +3.21%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 176.72 +.57%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.5 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  96.25 -2.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 66.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.36 -.41%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% unch.
  • Yield Curve 47.75 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.26 USD/Metric Tonne +.98%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 236.2 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 147.60 +9.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.9 +5.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -77 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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