Thursday, July 09, 2020

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, Biden Presidency Worries, Rising China Tensions, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.9 +6.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.60 -.34%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.98 +.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.93 +2.06%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 +9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 -1.32%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 +1.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.87 +2.62%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 974.15.0 +.79%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.47 +3.95%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.75 +1.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  79.34 -1.47%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 193.66 +4.75%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 173.74 +.86%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  95.0 -4.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 69.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.71 +.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .13% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 49.75 +1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.90 USD/Metric Tonne -.25%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 224.1 +2.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.70 -1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.50 +1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.38 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -109 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -160 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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