Thursday, July 16, 2020

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Coronavirus 2nd Wave Concerns, Biden Presidency Fears, Oil Decline, Tech/Airline Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 27.4 -1.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.60 +.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.71 -.10%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.8 -.09%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +26.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .67 +9.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.19 +45.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.11 -.03%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 896.20 -.34%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.97 -.96%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.25 +1.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  79.19 -.16%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 196.95 +2.29%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 175.10 +.14%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 15.5 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  96.25 -.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.73 -.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .10% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 46.75 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.47%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 270.8 +13.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.0 +6.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.30 +5.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.40 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +86 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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