Monday, July 20, 2020

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Global Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.7 -3.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.19 +.34%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.48 -.21%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.5 -3.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 -2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .77 unch.
  • NYSE Arms .93 -44.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.94 -2.22%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 886.91 -.79%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.24 -3.89%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 156.5 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index  77.59 -1.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 183.54 -4.4%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 175.30 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.75 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.0 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  101.0 +1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 67.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.77 +.20%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% unch.
  • Yield Curve 47.25 -.75 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.89 USD/Metric Tonne +.81%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 250.7 -8.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.1 +6.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.1 +34.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.45 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +72 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating unch. open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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