Wednesday, July 01, 2020

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Market/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Utility/REIT Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.9 -5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.38 -.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 -1.2%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.0 -.11%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +18.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .80 -4.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.60 +100.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.08 -2.89%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 995.27 -.26%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.80 -2.63%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 177.5 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.08 -3.17%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 185.66 -4.89%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.62 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.25 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.0 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  107.0 -2.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 68.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.40 +.54%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .13% unch.
  • Yield Curve 52.75 +4.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.47%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 184.70 +3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -68.50 +21.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.40 +3.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.35 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 16 meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 5th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +94 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -253 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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