Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Bernstein Quants Say China Momentum Stocks ‘Extremely’ Expensive. 

• Asian Stocks Open Mixed: Dollar Holds Retreat: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks began Thursday in a mixed fashion ahead of a slew of economic data in China that will provide clues on the path of economic recovery from the pandemic. The dollar kept its decline. Share indexes in Japan, South Korea and Australia opened flat. S&P 500 contracts edged lower after the index gained almost 1% on Wednesday amid optimism about progress in developing a vaccine for the coronavirus. Twitter Inc. slipped in after-hours trading after accounts of some of America’s most prominent political and business leaders were hacked. Crude oil dipped, while Treasuries were little changed. The Federal Reserve said the economy showed signs of a nascent recovery at the beginning of July. Futures on the S&P 500 Index fell 0.3% as of 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge rose 0.9% on Wednesday. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained less than 0.1%.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Trump Shies Off Sanctions, China’s Lexicon, EM Weakness: Eco Day.

• Nasdaq ‘Fear Gauge’ Flashes Warning Signs About Tech Rally.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Biden Election Stimulus.

• Hospitals in Covid-19 Hot Spots Are Filling Up.

• Remote Learning Widens America’s Education Gap.

• The Covid Fiscal Crisis Is About Debt and Taxes.

Fox News:

• National Association of Police Organizations endorses Trump after backing Obama-Biden twice.

• Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale out, adviser Bill Stepien in.

CNBC.com:

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Virgin Galactic, Twitter, Norwegian and more.

MarketWatch.com:     

• ‘Fear’ is rising in the stock-market and so is ‘dumb money’ confidence as tech stocks reach an inflection point.

• This ‘anti-bubble’ investment could save your portfolio, says hedge-fund manager who’s returned 47% this year.

• Prominent Twitter accounts hijacked in crypto scam; Elon Musk and Warren Buffett among victims.

• American Airlines warns 25,000 workers of potential furloughs.

Zero Hedge:  

• Is The Federal Reserve Sowing Seeds Of Marxism?

• Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos And Others Hacked In Unprecedented Twitter Attack And Bitcoin Scam; Over $100,000 Stolen In Minutes.

• 'Father Of Credit Risk Modeling' Has Ominous Warning Over "Insolvent" Companies Piling Up Debt.

• Never-Trump Project Lincoln Co-Founder Had Contract With Russian Government.

• Over A Third Of Americans Believe Biden Is Incapable Of Debating Trump.

• Family Of George Floyd Sues City Of Minneapolis, Four Police Officers.

• Fauci Expects Vaccine By Year-End, PA Reinstates State-Wide Restrictions, AL Hospitalizations Hit Record: Live Updates.

• S&P Stalls At Critical Resistance Again Despite Massive Short-Squeeze.

The Epoch Times:

• Trump’s Executive Order on Hong Kong will ‘Inflict Pain’ on Chinese Regime, Experts Say.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25%  to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.25 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 44.0 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.80 -.06%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.33%.

• S&P 500 futures -.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.56%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (ABT)/.42

• (ANGO)/-.06

• (BMI)/.35

• (BAC)/.28

• (SCHW)/.53

• (DPZ)/2.25

• (FLR)/.25

• (HTLD)/.14

• (JNJ)/1.51

• (MS)/1.13

• (TSM)/3.21

• (TFC)/.71

After the Close:

• (JBHT)/.85

• (MRTN)/.23

• (NFLX)/1.83

• (PPG)/.70

• (WAL)/.76

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for June are estimated to rise +5.0% versus a +17.7% gain in May.

• Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM for June is estimated to rise +5.0% versus a +12.4% gain in May.

• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for July is estimated to fall to 20.0 versus 27.5 in June.

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 1250K versus 1314K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 17500K versus 18062K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for May are estimated to fall -2.3% versus a -1.3% decline in April.

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for July is estimated to rise to 61 versus 58 in June.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, ECB decision/press conference, China New Home Sales report, Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.