Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, AI Stock Frenzy, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 +2.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .72%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.5 -5.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.2 -.39%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.8 +3.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.2 -4.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 137.0 +11.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -46.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.38 +39.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.9 -.39%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 389.1 +1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 399.0 -21.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.0 +.26% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 312.5 +.37%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 181.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.2 -4.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 245.33 -1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.7 +.23%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 20.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 184.0 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 719.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.6 -.45%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.28% +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.3 USD/Metric Tonne -2.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.7 euros/megawatt-hour  +.48%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.3 +3.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.5 -16.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.4 -4.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(485 of 500 reporting) -3.0% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.67 +.69:  Growth Rate +2.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 18.3 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 205.33 +5.02: Growth Rate +34.9% +3.3 percentage points, P/E 35.4 +.9
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.10 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.71 -8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -79.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.90% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% +6.0 basis points: CPI YoY +4.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 53.9%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 46.4%(-.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -218 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -166 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -3.2% 2) Oil Service -2.9% 3) Social Media -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OPRA, SBOW, TGT, GLNG, HTHT, ASAI, MX, BTU, BUD, CSAN, SDGR, FUTU, KSS, ARLP, NTES, EFC, PDD, ZTO, BEKE, AR, ASC, ZGN, WB, SKY and ZNTL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MQ 2) KDP 3) HON 4) KSS 5) AI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TGT 2) TSE 3) VTNR 4) TAL 5) SKY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Disk Drives +1.9% 2) Computer Hardware +1.6% 3) AI/Robotics +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AI, SDA, CVNA, VTS, RIOT, DLO, UPST, W, IONQ, IEP, CFLT, PLTR, SNOW, CRNC, SMCI, PSTG, AMBA, PATH, F, DECK, ANET, PARA, LI, QCOM, ANC, HSKA, SNPS, NVDA, ESTC and NFLX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HPE 2) PCG 3) AZN 4) ITUB 5) AMBA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AI 2) ETRN 3) TARO 4) CHPT 5) SOFI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAP)/2.56
• (DCI)/.74
• (FRO)/.95
  

After the Close: 

• (AI)/-.17
• (CHWY)/-.04
• (CRWD)/.51
• (NTAP)/1.35
• (JWN)/-.10
• (OKTA)/.12
• (PVH)/1.94
• (CRM)/1.61
• (VSCO)/.54
  

Economic Releases 

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI report for May is estimated to fall to 47.1 versus 48.6 in April.

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for April is estimated to fall to 9400K versus 9590K in March.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity report for May.

2:00 pm EST

• The Fed's Beige Book release.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, China Manufacturing PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Jefferies Software Conference, Craig-Hallum Institutional Investor Conference, TD Cowen Tech/Media/Telecom Conference and the (URI) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +16.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.1 -.4
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 47.3% of Issues Advancing, 49.5% Declining
• 48 New 52-Week Highs, 51 New Lows
• 40.5%(+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.0 -4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.3 -3.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,452.8 +.86%
• 1-Day Vix 11.1 -45.6%
  
• Vix 17.4 -.6% 
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -50.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 +20.2%
  

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Rejects US Claim That It’s ‘De-Risking’ Not ‘Decoupling’.  
• Niche Commodities Sound Alarm in Every Corner of China’s Economy. 
• Australia’s Building Approvals Slump to Lowest Level in 11 Years.
• Dimon Confronts New China Reality in First Visit Since Covid.
• Russia Hits Ukraine Air Base, Kyiv Downs Ballistic Missiles.
• BOJ to Build Case for Big Move in Latter Half of 2024, BE Says.
• World's Largest Solar Manufacturer Is Fueling a Price War.
• ECB’s Tightening Cycle Is Closer to End, But Still a Way to Go, De Cos Says.
• Spain’s Snap Election Risks Derailing the EU’s Top Priorities.
• Treasuries, US Stock Futures Reflect Debt Progress: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Extends Gain as Traders Monitor Progress on US Debt Ceiling.
• European Stocks Muted After US Debt Deal, With UK Market Closed.
• Biden, McCarthy Confident as Fight to Pass Debt Deal Revs Up.
• Long-Dated Treasury Futures Rally in Wake of Debt-Ceiling Accord.
• It’s Getting Harder to Insure Your Property If You Live in California. 
• World’s Most Valuable Chipmaker Unveils More AI Products After $184 Billion Rally.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodities This Week.

Zero Hedge:  

• Rabobank: Will The Debt Deal Pass Smoothly Or Will Congress Spoil It In The Last Minute?
• No Laughing Matter: John Cleese Holds Line Against Calls To Cancel Scene In 'Life Of Brian'.
• Carnival Sunshine Cruise Ship Battered By Massive Waves, Leaving Multiple Decks Flooded. 
• "Trans Rights" Means Trans Entitlements And The End Of Civil Society.
• More Than 50,000 US Stores Will Close By 2027 According To UBS.
• There Are 99 Pages Of Details In The Debt-Ceiling Deal, And A Big Trap On Republicans.
• Philadelphia Crime Wave Of Burglary, Larceny And Auto Theft Spills Into Nearby Suburbs.
• VDH: It Was Always Only About Power With The Left.
• Gaslighting: The American People Are Trapped In A Textbook Abusive Relationship.
• Chinese Developers Resorting To "Negative Down Payment" Practices.
• Memorial Day News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• The Great Silence.
• Liberal US Cities Top Global List For Highest Homelessness Problem.
• 'Kevin Caved': McCarthy Savaged Over Debt Ceiling Deal.
• Russia Issues Arrest Warrant For Lindsey Graham Over 'Killing Russians' Remarks.
• "The Best Way To Honor Sacrifice...".
• Lawyer Uses ChatGPT In Court And Now "Greatly Regrets" It.
• Old Navy To Shutter Downtown San Francisco Store Amid Retail Exodus.
• Graham Criticizes Defense Spending In Debt Ceiling Deal: "Biggest Winner Of Biden Defense Budget Is China".
• Facts Vs. Fed-Speak: A Comical History With Tragic Consequences.
• Morgan Stanley: The Day After.
• Zero Young Healthy Individuals Died Of COVID-19, Israeli Data Show.
• OpenAI Soars Above Bing Among World's Top 25 Websites.
• Ukraine War Threatens Biden Megadonor.
• Visualizing Democracy In Decline Worldwide.
• Lloyd's Becomes Latest Firm To Exit UN's Net-Zero Alliance.
• Escobar: Eurasian Heartland Rises To Challenge The West.
• China Shadow Banking Defaults Surge.
• 'The Official Truth': The End Of Free Speech That Will End America.
• Comedian Arrested In Beijing As Informants Become Norm Again In China, Eroding Mutual Trust.
• Col. Douglas Macgregor: "Bakhmut Is A Catastrophe [For Ukraine]... F-16s Won't Make A Difference".
• Washington Doctor Facing Probe For Criticizing COVID Policies Wins Emergency Injunction.
• What A Difference A Real DA Makes.
• Lululemon Fires Two Store Employees For Calling Police On Masked Robbers.
• Beyond the deal. 
• Children's Hospital 'Health Hero' Award Given To Trans Democrat Pushing Child Sex Changes.
• Bill To Legalize Psychedelic Mushrooms Advances In California Senate.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• As Interest Rates Rise, The Era Of "Deficits Don't Matter" Is Over.
• Bud Light Offers $2.99 18-Pack After Sales Tumble Accelerates.
• "What's More Tragic Is Capitalism": BLM Faces Bankruptcy As Founder Cullors Is Cut By Warner Bros.
• Under Pressure From Fat Activists, NYC Bans Weight Discrimination.

Wall Street Journal:

• This 101-Year-Old Is the Last Survivor of Pearl Harbor’s USS Arizona.
• Stupid Debt-Ceiling Tricks. The White House tries to wall off more spending from negotiations.
• The AI Boom Runs on Chips, but It Can’t Get Enough.
• Something Was Wrong With Dr. Stern. It Took Five Years to Figure Out.
• Why Are Markets So Calm? Quants Are Dominating.
• With Psych Wards Full, Mentally Ill Accused of Crimes Languish in Jail.
• Why You’re Losing More to Casinos on the Las Vegas Strip.
• More High-School Grads Forgo College in Hot Labor Market.
• Why Microsoft’s $75 Billion Bid for Activision Hinges on Call of Duty.
• Why AI Will Make Our Children More Lonely.
• Work Requirements Still Work. Joe Biden strongly favored welfare reform in the 1980s and ’90s.
• China Rebuffs Pentagon Chief, Blunting Rapprochement Push.

CNBC:

• Asia markets mixed after U.S. reaches debt ceiling deal; Japan stocks at highest since July 1990.
• Major central banks were expected to pause rate hikes soon. Now it’s not so clear cut.
• Restaurants expect strong sales this summer. Consumers aren’t so sure.
• Chinese apps remain hugely popular in the U.S. despite efforts to ban TikTok.
• What’s in the debt ceiling deal struck by Biden and McCarthy?
• Streaming services are removing tons of movies and shows — it’s not personal, it’s strictly business.
• Musk expected to visit China this week, meet officials, sources tell Reuters.
• Spending in China won’t return to pre-Covid levels soon — a problem for Starbucks, Morgan Stanley says.

MarketWatch.com:

• Debt-ceiling deal: Here’s what’s in and what’s out of the agreement.
• Don’t get stung by buy-now-pay-later services: ‘It is kind of a recipe for disaster if not managed carefully’.
• Wall Street tech darling Nvidia unveils more AI products — including a new supercomputer.

NewsMax:

• Texas State Rep. Harrison: Paxton Impeachment Legally Flawed.
• Jeffries Rejects McCarthy Claim 'There's Nothing' for Dems.

Fox News:

• Navy SEAL Jocko Willink shares letter to the fallen: 'Thankful to have served alongside you'.
• Law grad calls for 'revolution' to bring 'fascist' cops to their knees in fiery speech.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Six Republicans Already Voting No on McCarthy’s Spending Bill.
• ‘Boycott Target’ Song By Pro-Trump Rap Group Hits #2 on iTunes Rap and Hip-Hop Chart. 
• Conservative Parties Rock Socialists and Score HUGE Wins in Spain Elections – Populist Vox Party Triples Its Seats.
• Victor Davis Hanson: The Left is Waging a Cultural Revolution Against Traditional America (VIDEO). 
• Target Loses Over TEN BILLION Dollars in Ten Days Amid Conservative Boycott.
• NEW VIDEO EVIDENCE: Maricopa County Elections Officials Illegally Break into Sealed Election Machines after they were Certified and Before the Election – Inserting Reprogrammed Memory Cards – MUST SEE!
• Raechel Samsel Was Arrested and Abused Following Jan. 6 – Her Crime Was Standing Near the Scaffolding – Please Help Raechel if You Can – She Has Lost Everything.
• Kevin McCarthy Receives Community Fact-Checks After He Brags About Cutting Spending in Debt Negotiations.
• Kevin McCarthy ‘Not at all’ Concerned About Losing Speakership – Claims 95% of the House GOP Supports the Deal During Conference Call.
• Universal Studios to Host All-Ages ‘Pride Night’ Featuring Drag Shows, Photo Ops With Children’s Characters.
• Conservative House Republicans Threaten to Sink Biden, McCarthy Deal: ‘We’re Going to Try’.
• Kohl’s Is Selling Transgender Themed Clothing For 3 Month Old Babies.
• Huge Win: U.S. Biggest Children’s Hospital Will No Longer Offer Hormone Therapy and Other Transgender Care for Minors.
• Climate Change Alarmist Leonardo DiCaprio Parties on Super Yacht in Sardinia.

The Epoch Times: 

• ANALYSIS: G-7 Leaders Take Strong Stance on China, but Can They Maintain Their Resolve?
• China’s New US Ambassador Calls on ‘Compatriots’, Chinese Students to ‘Serve the Motherland’.

Twitter:

• @DrLoupis - John Kerry says US farmers must radically transform food production to meet 'net zero' emissions goals by 2030. Basically he’s saying Farmers must stop growing food.
• @RandPaul - Fake conservatives agree to fake spending cuts. Deal will increase mandatory spending ~5%, increase military spending ~3%, and maintain current non-military discretionary spending at post-COVID levels. No real cuts to see here. Conservatives have been sold out once again!
• @PIQNews - DeSantis dunks on debt deal: We're 'careening towards bankruptcy'.
• @ClayTravis - The United States cemetery in Normandy. Chilling and inspiring place. On this Memorial Day and all days, thank you for making us the freest and best country in world history. (video)
• @mrbcyber - China is clearly preparing for war.
• @bennyjohnson - If you want to understand the power of the Target Boycott you MUST see what Target is promoting for yourself. This has *nothing* to do with a rainbow "PRIDE" display. This has *everything* to do with the aggressive and explicit sexualization of children. See for yourself: (video)
• @tylerbowyer - There are so many “Quit Target” TikToks and Reels. It’s cool to drop target right now, wow.
• @TheBabylonBee - Target Launches New Kids' Clothing Line With Partner Ghislaine Maxwell.
• @VigilantFox -  “These Vaccines Saved No One!” - Dr. @PierreKory Unloads the Truth on the Wisconsin State Legislature. “We have baby formula, which kills a couple of babies, and the entire product is removed from the market. You have a faulty muffler on a car, and they recall 300,000 cars. And here you have all of these deaths being reported, and nobody’s doing anything.” (video)
• @BookerSparticus - The Republican House of Representatives are about to add $3 trillion to the national debt in 2 years. With that kind of success, what do you think will really come from any of their bogus Congressional hearings or whistle-blowers?
• @TheWuhanClan - Speaker Mccarthy has broken the promises he made to get appointed Speaker. “A budget that stops an increase to the debt ceiling”. MOTION TO VACATE NOW.
• @BrianOSheaSPI -  Fiscal conservatives blast debt ceiling ‘sell out’.
• @DrEliDavid - Taylor Swift is concerned about climate change. Fun fact: Her private jet emits more carbon in a single trip than your car in your entire lifetime.
• @WallStreetSilv - Once home to some of the most expensive and sought-after office space in the world, San Francisco today is suffering from one of the most hollowed-out downtowns in North America.
• @KariLake - Hey @fox10 @abc15 @azfamily @cbs5 @12news @azcentral When will the AZ media start covering this? When will the national news cover this?? Reach out to them and ask them WHY they are ignoring the theft of our government? Eventually they will have to cover it.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 961,868 Reports(+516 from prior week) Through May 19th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 121.25 -5.5 basis points
  
• China Sovereign CDS 66.5 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.15%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.8 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.7 +.04%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.12 -7.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 -2.0%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.
• S&P 500 futures +.27%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.39%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by healthcare and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.