Thursday, July 21, 2005

Stocks Finish Lower as Long-term Rates Close Near Session Highs

Indices
S&P 500 1,227.04 -.66%
DJIA 10,627.77 -.57%
NASDAQ 2,178.60 -.46%
Russell 2000 667.10 -1.54%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,234.24 -.76%
S&P Barra Growth 589.77 -.53%
S&P Barra Value 632.84 -.79%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.42 -.47%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 755.88 -.97%
Morgan Stanley Technology 498.53 -1.16%
Transports 3,779.59 +.27%
Utilities 388.62 -1.86%
Put/Call .92 +3.37%
NYSE Arms 1.40 +20.21%
Volatility(VIX) 10.97 +7.23%
ISE Sentiment 208.00 +36.84%
US Dollar 88.93 -.46%
CRB 300.76 -.86%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.32 -1.21%
Unleaded Gasoline 167.60 unch.
Natural Gas 7.30 -3.25%
Heating Oil 157.40 -1.48%
Gold 426.00 +.92%
Base Metals 124.47 +.13%
Copper 157.00 -1.35%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.27 +2.84%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +2.29%
Steel +2.03%
Defense +.56%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -2.15%
Airlines -3.07%
HMOs -6.28%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MSFT, GOOG, ACN and ALK.
- Reiterated Underperform on DJ, SGP, JBLU and EMC.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China’s decision to end its currency peg to the dollar is unlikely to give Asia’s export-driven economies a boost, according to economists at Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank AG.
- Iraqi security forces are improving their capability to conduct combat operations on their own, with decreased US support, the Pentagon said in a report to Congress released today.
- German President Horst Koehler dissolved parliament, paving the way for an early election requested by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to avoid a year of political deadlock.
- Four of Saddam Hussein’s nephews were identified today by the US Treasury Department as having financed and directed groups carrying out attacks against Iraqi and coalition forces.

Financial Times:
- Volkswagen AG will boost its sales discounts and advertising in North America to regain market share and improve relations with its US and Canadian dealers.
- Russia’s levels of corruption have increased tenfold in four years, and is now worth $316 billion, citing a survey by Indem.

Golfweek:
- Teenage golfer Michelle Wie will turn professional in October and sign a multiyear endorsement contract with Nike’s golf division worth $10 million to $12 million.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on gains in my Networking, Semiconductor, Homebuilding and Retail longs. I added to my GOOG long in after-hours trading with the stock down 27 and trimmed another tech long, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors fell and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Overall, today’s market action was neutral. The reaction to China's revaluation in the bond market seems overdone at this point. Ninety-five percent of China's foreign trade is denominated in dollars. Due to the political and economic ramifications, I seriously doubt any significant U.S. Treasury sell-down will occur.

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