Friday, July 29, 2005

Stocks Modestly Lower Mid-day on Rising Rates and Energy

Indices
S&P 500 1,240.02 -.30%
DJIA 10,693.61 +.10%
NASDAQ 2,192.48 -.27%
Russell 2000 681.35 -.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,383.64 26%
S&P Barra Growth 594.91 -.35%
S&P Barra Value 640.96 -.20%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.29 -.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 764.96 -.33%
Morgan Stanley Technology 502.11 -.50%
Transports 3,806.79 -.28%
Utilities 398.71 +.36%
Put/Call .88 +12.82%
NYSE Arms 1.13 +11.69%
Volatility(VIX) 11.33 +7.70%
ISE Sentiment 202.00 +36.49%
US Dollar 89.33 -.01%
CRB 311.56 +.33%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.30 +.60%
Unleaded Gasoline 175.10 +1.68%
Natural Gas 7.85 +2.03%
Heating Oil 164.00 -.33%
Gold 435.80 +.58%
Base Metals 126.42 +.32%
Copper 164.45 -.27%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.29% +2.50%

Leading Sectors
Restaurants +1.73%
Papers +1.23%
Airlines +1.17%

Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -.88%
Software -.99%
Homebuilders -1.29%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Homebuilding, Medical and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, most sectors are lower and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering the rise in energy prices and interest rates. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index remained at 134.50 this week, the same as last week. This is still up from 132.00 during the last week of May and near cycle highs of 135.90 set in mid-March. It is still forecasting healthy growth.

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