Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Stocks Slightly Higher Mid-day, Led by Tech and Energy

Indices
S&P 500 1,224.25 +.39%
DJIA 10,536.30 +.16%
NASDAQ 2,146.71 +.53%
Russell 2000 672.90 +.17%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,221.31 +.36%
S&P Barra Growth 585.66 +.49%
S&P Barra Value 634.20 +.29%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 579.40 +.23%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.11 +.08%
Morgan Stanley Technology 496.05 +.95%
Transports 3,599.80 -.65%
Utilities 396.89 +.64%
Put/Call .86 +8.86%
NYSE Arms .70 -1.51%
Volatility(VIX) 11.16 -.89%
ISE Sentiment 179.00 unch.
US Dollar 88.40 -1.18%
CRB 311.70 +.91%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.70 +3.02%
Unleaded Gasoline 177.90 +2.71%
Natural Gas 7.93 +5.80%
Heating Oil 175.10 +4.11%
Gold 427.10 +.19%
Base Metals 123.73 -.52%
Copper 153.90 -1.41%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.12% +.86%

Leading Sectors
Networking +2.42%
Oil Service +2.21%
Software +1.23%

Lagging Sectors
Broadcasting -.85%
Hospitals -1.20%
Airlines -2.43%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Retail, Semiconductor and Networking longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly positive, sector performance is mixed and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is positive considering the rise in energy prices and recent gains. The Johnson Redbook Same-store-sales Index rose 4.2% year-over-year last week vs. a 4.4% rise the prior week. This is the strongest back-to-back weekly performance since early July 2004. This is also up from a 1.5% gain in late April and the tenth week in a row the index has exceeded 3%. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index has risen 14.1% this year and is up 30.4% over the last 12 months. The S&P 500 has risen 1.5% and 11.4% over the same time periods. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering and bargain hunting.

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