Monday, July 11, 2005

Stocks Higher Mid-day, Led Again by Small-Caps

Indices
S&P 500 1,216.04 +.34%
DJIA 10,493.87 +.43%
NASDAQ 2,128.16 +.72%
Russell 2000 670.36 +1.24%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,146.53 +.46%
S&P Barra Growth 581.50 +.50%
S&P Barra Value 630.59 +.25%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 576.88 +.47%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 735.73 +.76%
Morgan Stanley Technology 489.25 +.95%
Transports 3,622.11 +.90%
Utilities 393.00 +.66%
Put/Call .78 -1.27%
NYSE Arms .90 +16.16%
Volatility(VIX) 11.28 -1.48%
ISE Sentiment 177.00 -8.29%
US Dollar 89.52 -.83%
CRB 307.80 -.68%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.40 -2.06%
Unleaded Gasoline 171.80 -2.57%
Natural Gas 7.43 -.50%
Heating Oil 166.80 -2.92%
Gold 427.10 +.76%
Base Metals 124.38 +.89%
Copper 156.10 +.32%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.11% +.66%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +2.20%
Disk Drives +2.12%
Steel +1.88%

Lagging Sectors
HMOs -.20%
Biotech -.31%
Oil Tankers -.48%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Retail, Semiconductor and Homebuilding longs. I exited a base metal short this morning and used the proceeds to add to existing shorts in various sectors, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is higher and volume is above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is positive. Since the October 11, 2002 lows, the Russell 2000 has returned 98.9% vs. a 52.3% gain for the S&P 500. Just over the last 2 and 1/2 months, the Russell has gained 16.7% vs. a 6.9% return for the S&P. The Russell 2000 is at an all-time high. The S&P 500 is still 21.6% off its all-time high. The Russell 2000 will likely continue to outperform through year-end. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering, bargain hunting and lower energy prices.

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