Thursday, July 21, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Terrorism Fears and Higher Long-Term Rates

Indices
S&P 500 1,227.54 -.62%
DJIA 10,632.15 -.53%
NASDAQ 2,180.19 -.38%
Russell 2000 669.69 -1.16%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,247.56 -.66%
S&P Barra Growth 590.16 -.48%
S&P Barra Value 633.45 -.70%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.43 -.47%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 757.51 -.73%
Morgan Stanley Technology 499.35 -1.0%
Transports 3,786.85 +.46%
Utilities 389.07 -1.74%
Put/Call .96 +7.87%
NYSE Arms 1.24 +1.13%
Volatility(VIX) 10.02 -4.11%
ISE Sentiment 234.00 +53.95%
US Dollar 88.70 -.71%
CRB 300.75 -.85%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.40 -1.07%
Unleaded Gasoline 167.50 +.12%
Natural Gas 7.28 -3.58%
Heating Oil 157.50 -1.42%
Gold 426.00 +.92%
Base Metals 124.47 +.13%
Copper 157.00 -1.35%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.27% +2.75%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +2.30%
Steel +1.88%
Broadcasting +.78%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -2.06%
Airlines -2.68%
HMOs -6.40%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my and Networking longs. I exited a few longs this morning as they hit stop-losses, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed so far. Today’s overall market action is neutral considering the rise in long-term rates and more terrorism in London. The decline in commodities today is likely signaling that China's economy, already on thin ice, will further weaken as a result of the yuan revaluation. The potential for a chronic terrorism problem in the U.K. is also weighing on the CRB. As I have said many times before, the CRB has been the main source of inflation worries. The 10-year T-note yield looks higher in the short term; however, I continue to see lower long-term interest rates in the intermediate term. I expect stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering and lower energy prices.

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