Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on North Korea Worries and Rising Long-term Rates

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Semi longs and Retail longs. I added (IWM) and (QQQQ) shorts on the open and also added to my (TLT) long and a few existing shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is lower and volume is below average. The rise in the 10-year yield and North Korea's missile tests are pressuring stocks. The market's reaction appears overdone to me. North Korea's missile test was widely expected. ADP's(ADP) projection that 368,000 new jobs were created in June vs. estimates of 160,000 is suspect, in my opinion. I will be very surprised, based on my analysis, if the job market is that strong. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, stabilizing long-term rates and bargain hunting.

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