Monday, October 23, 2006

DJIA Sharply Higher into Final Hour, Making Another All-Time High

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Retail longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is about even, sector performance is mostly higher and volume is modestly above average. At this point in time, Google (GOOG) is arguably the greatest large-cap growth stock in the world. Its niche is expanding rapidly and it is the dominant player. Most analysts expect Google's multiple to rise to around 40x forward estimates. Historically, the best growth stocks trading in a favorable environment for the "growth style" eventually trade at much higher valuations than this. Taking into consideration Google's strong fundamentals during a time of moderating global growth, a shift to the growth style and global underexposure to U.S. equities, I suspect Google's P/E multiple will expand much more than most expect. Google remains my largest long position. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, lower energy prices and investment manager performance anxiety.

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