Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Dow Jones Industrial Average Hits Another All-time High, Approaches 12,000 as Oil Falls Again, Inflation Decelerates and Profits Rise

Indices
S&P 500 1,365.96 +.14%
DJIA 11,992.68 +.36%
NASDAQ 2,337.15 -.33%
Russell 2000 763.41 -.20%
Wilshire 5000 13,660.21 -.42%
S&P Barra Growth 633.05 +.25%
S&P Barra Value 730.91 +.03%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 662.57 +.58%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 850.76 -.49%
Morgan Stanley Technology 544.35 -.73%
Transports 4,605.27 -.93%
Utilities 442.81 +.79%
Put/Call .90 unch.
NYSE Arms 1.39 -.93%
Volatility(VIX) 11.34 -3.32%
ISE Sentiment 115.0 +9.52%
US Dollar 86.89 +.02%
CRB 304.52 -1.18%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.79 -1.93%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.70 +.25%
Natural Gas 6.88 +6.88%
Heating Oil 169.72 -2.11%
Gold 593.70 +.19%
Base Metals 242.78 -1.87%
Copper 348.00 -.46%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.75% -.21%

Leading Sectors
HMOs +1.60%
Airlines +1.46%
Drugs +1.14%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -1.57%
Gold & Silver -1.89%
Semis -2.79%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Added (LLY) to Conviction Buy List.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The stock market renewed its fourth-quarter rally, helping the Dow Jones Industrial Average advance to another all-time high towards 12,000, as the year’s steepest drop in consumer prices removed the threat of accelerating inflation.
- Crude oil fell below $58/bbl. in NY after an Energy Dept. report showed a larger-than-expected jump in US oil inventories as refineries shut units for maintenance.
- Billionaire investor Carl Icahn said he has more than two-thirds of the support he needs to replace ImClone Systems’(IMCL) CEO and remove three other board members.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) said fourth-quarter profit rose 27% on back-to-school sales of Macintosh notebook computers and new versions of the iPod music player. The shares surged 5% in after-hours trading.
- Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) said third-quarter profit jumped 77%, fueled by market share gains. The shares tumbled 13% on weak forward guidance.
- EBay(EBAY) said third-quarter profit rose 10% after online payment services spurred revenue growth.
- Ryland Group(RYL), the biggest US homebuilder for first-time buyers, said third-quarter profit fell 26% as sales incentives reduced earnings. The shares jumped 7% as the profit beat analysts’ estimates.

LA Times:
- The University of Southern California offered a basketball scholarship to a 14-year-old high school freshman.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Semi longs, Telecom longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was neutral today as the advance/decline line finished about even, sector performance was mixed and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Today's overall market action was neutral. Oil continues to trade heavy, down another $1.20/bbl back near recent lows. Natural gas is traded up 7% on record speculation once again, notwithstanding all-time high inventories. This speculation should subside over the coming weeks as natural gas enters its seasonally weak period and funds liquidate long positions to meet year-end redemptions. I sense the action over the last few days has allowed those market shorts that had stepped away to reload. My intraday measures of investor angst were elevated throughout the day.

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