Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Stocks Finish Modestly Lower on Profit-taking after Recent Sharp Gains

Indices
S&P 500 1,364.05 -.37%
DJIA 11,950.02 -.26%
NASDAQ 2,344.95 -.80%
Russell 2000 764.91 -.59%
Wilshire 5000 13,717.75 unch.
S&P Barra Growth 631.46 -.37%
S&P Barra Value 730.67 -.36%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 658.74 +.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 854.95 -.90%
Morgan Stanley Technology 548.38 -1.29%
Transports 4,648.65 -1.68%
Utilities 439.33 +.61%
Put/Call .90 +13.92%
NYSE Arms 1.38 +28.41%
Volatility(VIX) 11.73 +5.77%
ISE Sentiment 104.0 -35.80%
US Dollar 86.83 -.20%
CRB 308.16 -.13%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.92 -1.70%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.06 -2.08%
Natural Gas 6.41 -.39%
Heating Oil 173.75 -1.08%
Gold 594.00 +.08%
Base Metals 247.40 +2.09%
Copper 348.60 -.29%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.76% -.17%

Leading Sectors
Utilities +.61%
Drugs +.54%
Biotech +.23%

Lagging Sectors
Alternative Energy -1.52%
Networking -1.69%
Semis -2.46%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil fell another $1/bbl. on forecasts that US inventories rose and skepticism OPEC will cut production by 1 million barrels per day.
- IBM(IBM) said third quarter profit surged 47%, beating analysts’ estimates as computer sales rose.
- Toyota Motor(TM), Honda Motor and Ford Motor(F) gasoline-electric vehicles led the US government’s fuel-efficiency rankings for 2007 models, as Toyota and Honda accounted for seven of the top 10.
- Carl Icahn bought an additional $200 million of Lear Corp.(LEA) stock, making him the biggest shareholder.
- Intel Corp.(INTC) said third-quarter profit fell 35% amid price cuts and market share losses.
- Yahoo!(YHOO) said third-quarter profit dropped 38% because of costs to expense employee stock options.

Financial Times:
- Vivendi SA’s Universal Music Group, the world’s largest music company, has filed suits against two user-generated Web sites, Sony’s(SNE) Grouper.com and Bolt.com.

CNBC:
- Harrah’s Entertainment(HET) may reject a $15.5 billion buyout offer from private-equity firms Apollo Management LP and Texas Pacific Group.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Biotech longs, Telecom longs and Commodity shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors fell and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were higher into the close. Today's overall market action was slightly bearish. The Saudi Tadawul All Share Index, which had been one of the booming emerging markets over the last few years, is down 49% since February and shows few signs of life as it approaches recent lows. Its weak technical state continues despite numerous calls recently for $100/bbl. oil and a rebound in many other emerging market indices. The decline in the Tadawul that began in February foreshadowed the peak in oil prices, in my opinion.

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