Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Dow Jones Industrial Average Makes Another All-Time High, Boosted by Commodity and Homebuilding Shares

Indices
S&P 500 1,377.38 +.03%
DJIA 12,127.88 +.09%
NASDAQ 2,344.84 -.46%
Russell 2000 762.43 -.14%
Wilshire 5000 13,766.07 +.04%
S&P Barra Growth 638.56 -.11%
S&P Barra Value 736.76 +.16%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 667.81 -.11%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 861.09 +.85%
Morgan Stanley Technology 544.30 -.44%
Transports 4,731.64 +1.06%
Utilities 448.67 -.11%
Put/Call 3.22 +329.3%
NYSE Arms .91 +29.79%
Volatility(VIX) 10.79 -2.62%
ISE Sentiment 157.0 +12.1%
US Dollar 86.67 -.05%
CRB 307.54 +.47%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.33 +.88%
Unleaded Gasoline 153.0 +3.98%
Natural Gas 7.1 +3.26%
Heating Oil 169.55 +1.59%
Gold 587.50 -.02%
Base Metals 242.43 -1.18%
Copper 341.85 +.01%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.81% -.21%

Leading Sectors
Steel +4.11%
Oil Tankers +4.08%
Oil Service +3.34%

Lagging Sectors
Software -.99%
Semis -1.13%
Computer Hardware -1.59%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its eighth record in two weeks.
- The US government sued the estate of Enron’s deceased founder Ken Lay, seeking to strip it of $12.7 million in ill-gotten gains from an accounting fraud that cost investors an estimated $30 billion.
- Amazon.com said third quarter net income fell on higher technology spending and costs to run its own toy store. The stock surged 12% after-hours as it bested estimates.

CNBC:
- The Mays family that runs Clear Channel Communications(CCU) has been talking with private equity firms about the possibility of a leveraged buyout.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
- General Electric(GE) plans to double its profit by 2012, citing CEO Immelt.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Semi longs, Telecom longs and Commodity shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was modestly negative today as the advance/decline line finished slightly lower, most sectors declined and volume was slightly above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Today's overall market action slightly bearish. However, losses were muted and a number of market-leading stocks posted modest gains. Cyclicals, specifically commodity stocks, outperformed today on strong profit reports. I do not believe this outperformance will last much longer. Homebuilders also outperformed today. While "the worst may well be over for housing," as Greenspan said, I suspect the equities will trade range-bound over the intermediate-term. I also suspect tomorrow's FOMC policy statement may be less hawkish than most expect, however they could use higher stock prices as an excuse to continue to talk hawkish. I still believe there is very little chance the Fed will raise rates again with the 10-year yield anywhere near current levels. A rate cut is still more likely during the first half of next year.

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