Monday, October 30, 2006

Stocks Mostly Higher into Final Hour on Another Fall in Energy Prices and Strong Earnings

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Retail longs, Biotech longs and Commodity shorts. I covered some of my (IWM) and (QQQQ) hedges, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Back on July 20, three days after the S&P 500 made its final low before tearing higher, I highlighted how large the negativity bubble had become. In my opinion, overall investor sentiment is currently nowhere near levels associated with meaningful market tops. The negativity bubble has lost some air, but shows few signs of popping. I continue to believe the bears' remain stunningly complacent given the recent rally and DJIA record highs. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as political uncertainty and profit-taking offsets lower energy prices and strong earnings.

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