Friday, October 20, 2006

Stocks Slightly Lower on Profit-taking as Oil Falls to New Lows for the Year

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Biotech longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. U.K. housing prices surged 11.5% year-over-year, in the most recent survey, to record highs. The reason this is significant is that their downturn began before ours. The U.K.'s economy was even more levered to housing. Their "bubble" was supposedly bigger, according to industry analysts. The Lex column in the Financial Times is saying today that the number of new houses in the U.K. won't catch up to the number of new households for a decade. I continue to believe U.S. housing is in the process of stabilizing at relatively high levels and that the bears are greatly exaggerating the slowdown's overall negative impact on the U.S. economy. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting, lower energy prices and investment manager performance anxiety.

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