Thursday, November 16, 2006

DJIA Hits Another All-Time High on Rising Homebuilder Optimism and Plunging Energy Prices

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Retail longs and Computer longs. I took more profits in my (TLT) long and added to an existing long, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is mixed, most sectors are rising and volume is above average.
The prices paid component of the Philly Fed fell again in November to 26.7.
It has plunged 60% from October 2005 highs. This gauge of inflation is just another in the slew of very benign readings of late. Today's modest rise in the 10-year yield is a result of "selling the news" and a reflection of the likelihood that economic data will show economic growth is accelerating modestly into year-end, in my opinion. This is a positive for equity investors as most are more worried about growth slowing too much rather than inflation. My TLT long is now an underweight position. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, performance anxiety, more economic optimism and falling energy prices.

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