Monday, November 20, 2006

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Medical longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly negative as the advance/decline line is modestly lower, most sectors are rising and volume is below average. Considering the weakness in Asia last night, today’s slight losses aren't too bad. A number of sectors are higher, led by steel and reits. Phelps Dodge (PD) is surging on FCX's takeover bid. Freeport's CEO Adkerson said the deal would be accretive unless copper falls "significantly" from current levels. I think copper will fall significantly from current levels and the deal won't be accretive for years. In my opinion, (FCX) vastly overpaid for (PD) and the stock is now an excellent short. The 10-year yield is stable after leading indicators came in at estimates. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, investor performance anxiety, more economic optimism and buyout speculation.

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