Sunday, November 12, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Steny Hoyer, the House Democratic whip, said President Bush and the new Democratic Congress stand a good chance of working out agreements on immigration and deficit reduction.
- US consumers, unfazed by the real-estate slump, keep on spending.
- US Treasuries rose the most this week since September on expectations a divided government will curb spending measures, foreign demand for US bonds will increase and inflation gauges fell.
- Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, under fire from Iraqis and the US leadership for his government’s failure to help curb violence, called in a closed session of parliament today for a broad cabinet reshuffle.
- China is drafting policies including tax incentives and discounts, to boost exploration for heavy oil resources such as oil sands and oil shale to meet local demand.
- BHP Billiton(BHP), Hess Corp. and Repsol YPF SA paid $1.35 billion to buy the Genghis Khan oil and gas project from Anadarko Petroleum, adding a venture in the Gulf of Mexico that’s due to start production next year.
- Natural gas prices may fall in NY as mild weather reduces demand and inventories remain near all-time highs.
- Russia’s boom in IPOs may indicate companies are concerned that stock prices could fall amid “political uncertainty” as President Putin prepares to step down in 2008, Citigroup said.
- Samsung Electronics, the world’s second-largest maker of semiconductors, forecast “very strong” first-quarter orders for computer memory chips, helped by demand spurred by Microsoft’s new Windows operating system.
- The Consumer Price Index in China unexpectedly slowed to 1.4% from year ago levels, the National Bureau of Statistics said today.
- William Buechler, Chief Investment Officer of Barclays Partners Asset Management, forecasts a “very good” US economy in 2007.
- Copper futures fell 4% in Shanghai, the maximum daily price move allowed by the exchange, to a three-month low as rising inventories raised speculation that supply may exceed demand this year.

NY Times:
- Jobs in the US are so abundant that investors are worried that the Fed may delay making interest rate cuts, lest inflation revive.
- US Treasury Secretary Paulson is looking to reach agreement with Democrats on economic issues of mutual agreement such as middle-class tax cuts and simplification of the tax code.
- The Democratic Party’s win leaves little chance for a bill to open large areas of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to oil and gas drilling. The bill would have added vast amounts of oil and gas to domestic supplies.
- McGraw-Hill(MHP) is focusing on its global, digital and productivity units as its fastest growing businesses, and plans to expand its operations in India, CEO McGraw said.
- Computer scientists and start-up companies are seeking to develop technology to generate more useful information from the Internet that would allow it to be more of a guide than a catalog.
- US labor unions are trying to persuade Democrats to champion some of their policy initiatives, including making it easier for workers to form unions. Union leaders have been reminding Democrats that union members aided them with more than $100 million in donations and more than 100,000 volunteers for voter-turnout efforts.

Boston Globe:
- The new Democratic leaders in Congress may start probes in President Bush’s use of pre-war intelligence on Iraq and his domestic terrorism surveillance program.

LA Times:
- Almost two-thirds of voters in California say the state is heading in the right direction after re-electing Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, according to a recent poll.

Washington Post:
- James Webb may plan an independent role as the Democratic senator from Virginia, planning a course separate from that mapped by the party leaders who spent more than $6 million on his campaign to defeat Republican Senator George Allen.
- Almost 11,000 Saudis are attending colleges and universities in the US this year, reversing a decline that came after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Chicago Sun-Times:
- The Chicago Cubs, who haven’t won a World Series in 98 years and had the worst record in the National League this year, have a market value of between $500 million and $650 million, analysts said.

AP:
- Cuban President Fidel Castro isn’t expected to live through 2007, citing US government officials.

Financial Times:
- The Bank of Japan’s tightening of money supply is hurting the Japanese economy, former financial services minister Heizo Takenaka said.

Guardian:
- The Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Howard Dean, will meet with senior officials of Britain’s Labour party to advise on campaign strategy, in an effort to boost Labour’s election prospects.

Nihon Keizai:
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA will export bio-ethanol to Japan from 2008 for automobile fuel and aims to boost shipments to about 185 million gallons a year in 2011.
- Toyota Motor(TM), Nissan Motor(NSANY) and Honda Motor(HMC) may boost production in North America by 30% to 5.4 million vehicles by 2010.

Asahi:
- Japan’s government plans to produce 13.2 million gallons of bio-ethanol within five years by using inventories of imported rice.

Tehran Times:
- Iran plans to increase its oil output capacity by 45,000 barrels per day by developing new onshore fields.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (WYNN) and (WFMI).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.09%
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.04%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (BOBE)/.39
- (DKS)/.05
- (KNOT)/.10
- (QGEN)/.14
- (TSN)/-.04

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Deficit for October is estimated to widen to -$49.0 billion versus -$47.4 billion in September.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are lower, weighed down by commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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