BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Retail longs and Internet longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. Three stunningly positive developments for the broad market occurred today. Here is a summary:
1. The world has three times more recoverable oil than previously thought, according to Cambridge Energy Research.
2. The PPI fell 1.6%, matching the largest monthly decline in U.S. history. The Core PPI fell .9%, the largest monthly decline in 13 years.
3. Homebuilder DR Horton (DHI) beat consensus 4Q earnings estimates by .58/share or 84%. They exceeded revenue estimates by $850 million.
Just a few months ago, most investors believed the imminent occurrence of the hugely flawed "peak oil" theory was at hand, runaway inflation would send interest rates soaring and that a housing earnings beat of DR Horton's magnitude was impossible. The knee-jerk reaction to sell and short stocks this morning on the belief that a recession is looming will prove, once again, incorrect. I suspect GDP growth for the fourth quarter will exceed estimates of 2.5%, coming in around 3%, as the deflator subtracts less from growth than most expect. I suspect U.S. stocks have begun another meaningful push higher into year-end after a brief election digestion period. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, performance anxiety, lower energy prices, lower interest rates, more optimism and buyout speculation.
Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
DJIA Making Another New All-Time High into Final Hour on Three Stunning Developments
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