Tuesday, November 14, 2006

DJIA Making Another New All-Time High into Final Hour on Three Stunning Developments

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Retail longs and Internet longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is above average. Three stunningly positive developments for the broad market occurred today. Here is a summary:

1. The world has three times more recoverable oil than previously thought, according to Cambridge Energy Research.
2. The PPI fell 1.6%, matching the largest monthly decline in U.S. history. The Core PPI fell .9%, the largest monthly decline in 13 years.
3. Homebuilder DR Horton (DHI) beat consensus 4Q earnings estimates by .58/share or 84%. They exceeded revenue estimates by $850 million.


Just a few months ago, most investors believed the imminent occurrence of the hugely flawed "peak oil" theory was at hand, runaway inflation would send interest rates soaring and that a housing earnings beat of DR Horton's magnitude was impossible. The knee-jerk reaction to sell and short stocks this morning on the belief that a recession is looming will prove, once again, incorrect. I suspect GDP growth for the fourth quarter will exceed estimates of 2.5%, coming in around 3%, as the deflator subtracts less from growth than most expect. I suspect U.S. stocks have begun another meaningful push higher into year-end after a brief election digestion period. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, performance anxiety, lower energy prices, lower interest rates, more optimism and buyout speculation.

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