Monday, November 13, 2006

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted by Technology Shares as Commodity Prices Fall

Indices
S&P 500 1,384.42 +.25%
DJIA 12,131.88 +.19%
NASDAQ 2,406.38 +.70%
Russell 2000 772.41 +.42%
Wilshire 5000 13,870.77 +.26%
S&P Barra Growth 641.16 +.23%
S&P Barra Value 741.29 +.28%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 669.16 -.06%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 868.41 +.52%
Morgan Stanley Technology 568.30 +1.09%
Transports 4,774.45 +.87%
Utilities 449.20 -.14%
Put/Call .79 -19.39%
NYSE Arms .82 -43.17%
Volatility(VIX) 10.86 +.65%
ISE Sentiment 145.0 +7.41%
US Dollar 85.38 +.36%
CRB 308.03 -.87%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.52 -1.80%
Unleaded Gasoline 153.70 -1.64%
Natural Gas 7.95 +2.12%
Heating Oil 165.90 -2.22%
Gold 627.20 +.22%
Base Metals 230.34 -4.72%
Copper 311.60 +.08%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.6% +.34%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +3.11%
Semis +1.56%
Computer Hardware +1.23%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -.34%
Coal -1.0%
Retail -1.09%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Bank of America:
- Rated (FFIV) and (NICE) Buy.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the largest US public pension, will use $500 million to speculate on oil, metals and other commodities for the first time. Speculation in commodity indexes by pension funds and other investment vehicles doubled in the past year to $110 billion. Notwithstanding this record infusion of capital, the CRB Index is 7% lower this year and down 16% from record highs set in May.
- Shares of American Airlines(AMR) surpassed the price they reached the day before the 9/11 terrorist attacks as the world’s largest airline benefits from more than five years of retooling how it flies.
- Microsoft(MSFT) plans to add a video-sharing feature to its Zune player and will eventually sell a model that combines the device with a phone, CEO Ballmer said.
- Chevron(CVX) said it’s boosting expansion plans at its largest refinery to raise gasoline output to 6.25 million gallons a day, enough to supply more than half the cars in New Jersey.
- Natural gas may fall in NY as mild weather reduces demand and inventories remain near all-time highs, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- Venezuela said exploration in the country’s heavy-crude belt along the Orinoco River has added as much as 7.6 billion barrels to the country’s certified recoverable oil reserves.

Andina:
- President Bush and Colombian leader Alvaro Uribe will sign a free trade agreement on Nov. 22.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Internet longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, sector performance was mostly positive and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Today's overall market action was modestly bullish. The 10-year rallied into the afternoon, pushing the yield down to 4.6%. Commodities finished lower, with lead falling 12% intraday, the most in 16 years, however commodity stocks finished mostly higher as investors continue to treat weakness as temporary and remain complacent, in my opinion. The U.S. dollar index finished near session highs. I expect retail sales, excluding service station receipts, to exceed estimates tomorrow. Another sharp decline in the PPI is expected. I expect stocks to build on today's modest gains later this week.

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