Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Stocks Finish Mostly Higher, Consolidating Recent Gains

Indices
S&P 500 1,402.81 +.16%
DJIA 12,321.59 +.04%
NASDAQ 2,454.84 +.09%
Russell 2000 792.17 +.20%
Wilshire 5000 14,085.02 +.21%
S&P Barra Growth 651.79 +.22%
S&P Barra Value 748.76 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 677.03 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 885.99 +.38%
Morgan Stanley Technology 578.98 +.23%
Transports 4,851.88 +.28%
Utilities 449.39 +.24%
Put/Call 1.02 +24.39%
NYSE Arms .99 -19.23%
Volatility(VIX) 9.90 -.70%
ISE Sentiment 137.0 -15.43%
US Dollar 85.20 -.26%
CRB 310.32 +1.31%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.09 +2.19%
Unleaded Gasoline 162.10 +4.29%
Natural Gas 7.94 -.87%
Heating Oil 172.90 +3.48%
Gold 627.10 -.25%
Base Metals 233.87 +.62%
Copper 314.50 -.08%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.57% -.51%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +3.75%
Steel +2.71%
Airlines +2.37%

Lagging Sectors
Drugs -.46%
Telecom -.60%
Semis -1.10%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Dell Inc.(DELL) posted a third-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates and said steps to improve its financial performance are starting to take hold, sending the shares 9% higher in after-hours trading.
- US economic growth will slow to 2.9% in 2007 from 3.1% this year, the Council of Economic Advisers said.
- Crude oil rose to $60 a barrel in New York after the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System limited the amount of oil it will carry and a North Sea platform was shut because of a gas leak.
- The Justice Department, responding to a legal challenge by former Clinton administration Attorney General Janet Reno, says it stands by a decision to try a suspected terrorist outside the court system.
- The NY Merc announced today that it will expand COMEX metals electronic trading to include side by side trading, COMEX miNYs, Asian metals, and London metals futures contracts on the CME Globex® electronic trading platform beginning Dec. 3 for trade date December 4.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Retail longs, Internet longs and Computer longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was neutral today as the advance/decline line finished about even, sector performance was mixed and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Today's overall market action was neutral as the major averages continue to consolidate recent gains on below-average volume. Underneath the surface today, quite a number of stocks broke out on volume. As well, market leaders remain strong. The 10-year yield finished near session lows, down another 2 basis points as the White House lowered its economic growth forecast. Despite this, commodities were higher across the board with the CRB Index rising 1.3%. I think oil would have to rise into the upper 60s to generate any substantial weakness in the broad market. I view this as unlikely. The ISE Sentiment Index is plunged 33% to a very low 108.0 this morning. As well, the CBOE total/put call was at above-average levels throughout the day. I have heard a number of pundits point to the low VIX as a sign of the market's imminent demise. The last time the VIX broke below 10 was January 1994. The S&P 500 returned 60% over the next three years. I continue to believe the many U.S. stock market bears remain stunningly complacent as every minor dip is viewed as a major top and every rally just another short-selling/selling opportunity.

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