Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Russia Can’t Be Blackmailed Over Ukraine, Putin Says. It’s futile for the U.S. and its allies to “blackmail” Russia over the Ukraine crisis, President Vladimir Putin said in a newspaper interview. Russia’s partners should remember the risks involved in disputes between nuclear powers, Putin said. He accused Barack Obama of adopting a “hostile” approach in naming Russia as a threat to the world in the U.S. president’s speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 24. “We hope that our partners will realize the futility of attempts to blackmail Russia and remember what consequences discord between major nuclear powers could bring for strategic stability,” Putin told Serbia’s Politika newspaper on the eve of his visit to the Balkan nation today.

• Obama Confronts Slippery Slope as Islamic State Advances. President Barack Obama is facing the slippery-slope problem in Iraq and Syria that he’s sought to avoid, with some advisers concluding that limited airstrikes are insufficient to break Islamic State’s momentum. As airpower has failed to dislodge the extremists from the Syrian border town of Kobani or halt their offensive in Iraq, Obama’s appeals for strategic patience are being challenged by some U.S. military and intelligence officers and diplomats who say more needs to be done. 

• Second Ebola Worker’s Flight Adds to Safety Questions. A second Texas health worker who tested positive for Ebola after caring for a man killed by the virus in Dallas flew to Cleveland and back before reporting she had symptoms of the deadly disease. U.S. officials are now tracking 132 others who were on the the Frontier Airlines flight used by the woman. The flight and the back-to-back caregiver infections, the second of which was reported this morning, open new questions about oversight lapses by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and bring new emphasis to criticisms by a nurses’ group about the safety precautions in use.

• Dallas County Considers Declaring State of Disaster From Ebola. Dallas County Commissioners will vote tomorrow to declare a local state of disaster caused by the Ebola virus. The county “has the potential to suffer widespread or severe damage, injury, loss or threat of life resulting from the Ebola virus,” according to a proposed draft of the declaration.

• Mass Panic of SARS Shows Potential Cost of Ebola’s Spread. The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has raised concerns of international spread -- and economic impact -- similar to the SARS epidemic in 2002 and 2003. 

• EU Starts Two-Week Austerity Scrutiny as Crisis Reawakens. The European Union started a two-week probe of euro-area governments’ draft budgets as a re-emergence of the bloc’s debt-crisis nightmare risked undoing its economic recovery. As yields on 10-year securities from Europe’s most-indebted nations surged yesterday, led by Greece and sweeping up Portugal, Ireland and Italy, the European Commission started a process of picking apart nations’ 2015 spending plans, seeking to defuse potential fiscal timebombs. 

• Greek Bailout Exit Plan at Risk Amid Bond, Stock Selloff. Greece’s plan to escape the shackles of the biggest bailout in history is at risk of falling apart. A monthlong market selloff in stocks and bonds has pushed yields to a level that investors say threatens once again to cut Greece off from markets.

• Putin Allies Said Angling to Wrest Paper From WSJ, FT. Businessmen close to President Vladimir Putin are preparing to acquire Vedomosti, the largest newspaper outside the Kremlin’s control, three people familiar with the matter said. Putin signed a law yesterday capping foreign ownership in media at 20 percent, meaning the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, co-founders of the newspaper, must cut or sell their 33 percent stakes by the end of 2016. The third owner, Sanoma Oyj (SAA1V), is already in talks to sell its Russian holdings.

• Brazil Vote in Dead Heat as Neves, Rousseff Tie in Poll. Brazilian opposition candidate Aecio Neves is statistically tied with President Dilma Rousseff 11 days before a runoff election, a Datafolha poll showed today. Neves garnered 45 percent support, compared with 43 percent for Rousseff in the Oct. 14-15 poll of 9,081 people that has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. Rousseff of the Workers’ Party, known as the PT, won 42 percent in the first round on Oct. 5, compared to 34 percent for Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, or PSDB.

• Japan Display Said to Delay Screen Shipments to Apple(AAPL). Japan Display Inc. (6740), a maker of mobile-device screens, forecast a surprise annual loss because of delayed shipments to Apple Inc. (AAPL) and reduced sales to Sony Corp. (6758), according to a person familiar with the matter.

• Sands China Fall as Macau Competition Hit High-end Margin. Sands China Ltd. (1928) led declines among casinos in Hong Kong trading as intense competition between the resorts hit margins for higher-stakes mass-market gamblers.

• Asian Stocks Head to Six-Month Low; Bonds Rise, Oil Drops. Asian stocks slid toward a six-month low and average bond yields for the biggest developed economies fell to a record on concerns that global growth is at risk. Crude oil extended declines as South Korea’s won led emerging-market currencies higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 1.1 percent by 10:47 a.m. in Tokyo, as every major Asian benchmark gauge retreated.

• Commodities Sink to Five-Year Low Led by Metals Declines. Commodities dropped to a five-year low on growing concern that slower economic growth will cool demand in China, the world’s top consumer of metals, grains and energy. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) of 22 raw materials fell as much as much as 1.3 percent yesterday to the lowest since July 2009. Copper futures dropped by the most since March on the Comex, while hog prices posted the biggest loss in 25 months. Raw materials slumped 7 percent this year, headed for a fourth annual decline and the longest slump since at least 1991, amid concern that economic growth is weakening as global equity markets lost $1.5 trillion last week. A stronger dollar has curbed demand for commodities as alternative assets.

• Dark Pools Said to Rebuff Orders Amid U.S. Volume Surge. Three of the largest dark pools told customers to trade elsewhere during at least part of today’s session as concern about Ebola and global economic growth spurred the busiest day for U.S. stocks in three years. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) and UBS AG (UBSN) told some clients to temporarily stop sending orders as volume surged, according to five people with knowledge of the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity. The instructions came as the broader market processed 11.9 billion shares, the most since Oct. 27, 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Dallas Officials Warn More Ebola Cases Could Be Coming. Second Infected Health Worker Who Treated Liberian Thomas Eric Duncan Ill; Agency Reviewing Hospital’s Actions.

• Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears. Falling Commodities Prices Pressures Central Banks. Behind the spate of market turmoil lurks a worry that top policy makers thought they had beaten back a few years ago: the specter of deflation. A general fall in consumer prices emerged as a big concern after the 2008 financial crisis because it summoned memories of deep and lingering downturns like the Great Depression and two decades of lost growth in Japan. The world’s central banks in recent years have used a variety of...

• New Push to Check Spread of Ebola. Infected Nurse’s Trip on Airplane Raises Concerns. Concerns grew about containing the spread of Ebola in the U.S. after federal health officials disclosed Wednesday that the second Texas nurse infected with the virus flew from Dallas to Cleveland and back in the days before reporting her symptoms. Amber Joy Vinson, a nurse at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas who provided extensive medical care to a Liberian man with Ebola who died, shouldn’t have been allowed to travel on a commercial flight, said the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tom Frieden. “She should not have been on that plane,” he told reporters.

• Market Tumult Squeezes Big Banks. Latest Results Show Margin Pressure Persist as Yields Drop.

Fox News:

• Fox News Poll: As election nears, voters say things are 'going to hell in a handbasket'. The new poll, released Wednesday, finds 58 percent of voters feel things in the world are “going to hell in a handbasket.” That includes nearly half of Democrats (48 percent) and majorities of independents (61 percent) and Republicans (71 percent).

CNBC:

• Brutal period for hedge funds. (video)

• Why Netflix(NFLX) stock isn't a 'buy': Wedbush analyst. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Putin Warns Of "Nuclear Power Consequences" If Attempts To Blackmail Russia Don't Stop.

• 2nd Ebola Patient's Akron, Ohio Family Home Cordoned Off.

• For Bank Of America(BAC), Crime Is Now An Ordinary Course Of Business.

• When High Volatility Comes With Low Rates. (graph)

• Netflix(NFLX) Obliterated After Guiding To Half Expected Q4 EPS, Streaming Adds Hit Brick Wall: Stock Down $100.

• 9 Ominous Signals Coming From The Financial Markets That We Have Not Seen In Years.

• This Is What Happens, Janet, When You Take The Punchbowl Away. (graph)

Business Insider:

• HBO's Standalone Web Service Is Good News For Companies Trying To Revolutionize TV.

• ISIS's Surge Through Anbar Province Could Push Iraq To Its Breaking Point.

• Here's Your Ebola Survival Guide For Airplanes, From The CDC.

• Traders Are Blaming Today's Sell-Off On 7 Things.

Reuters:

• EBay(EBAY), Wal-Mart(WMT) warnings stir holiday sales concerns. EBay Inc on Wednesday joined Wal-Mart Stores Inc in cutting its outlook for the all-important holiday season, suggesting that the fourth quarter may turn out to be weaker than some analysts predicted as recently as last week. The warnings from two of the retail industry's most influential players comes as investors re-assess the state of the global economy after weak data this week from the two largest countries, the United States and China.

• eBay(EBAY) trims 2014 revenue outlook amid economic fears. EBay Inc trimmed its full-year revenue forecast on Wednesday, signaling a weaker-than-expected holiday shopping season for the e-commerce company as it prepares to split from its fast-growing payments arm, PayPal.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.9Brazil cuts 2014 GDP growth forecast, keeps fiscal goaFed's Williams: Can't wait too long to raise rates

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.50% to -.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.0 +7.25 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 73.75 +.5 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures +.43%.

• S&P 500 futures +.27%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.21%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (BX)/.71

• (POOL)/.78

• (PPG)/2.76

• (DAL)/1.18

• (BBT)/.72

• (UNH)/1.53

• (MAT)/1.02

• (DHR)/.89

• (FITB)/.43

• (BHI)/1.13

• (PM)/1.33

• (BAX)/1.31

• (GWW)/3.29

• (GS)/3.21

• (ADS)/3.31

• (SYK)/1.14

• (COF)/1.94

• (XLNX)/.56

• (SNDK)/1.33

• (SLB)/1.46

• (GOOG)/6.53

• (BMI)/.70

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 290K versus 287K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2380K versus 2381K prior.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production for September is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in August.

• Capacity Utilization for September is estimated to rise to 79.0% versus 78.8% in August.

• Manufacturing Production for September is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.4% decline in August.

10:00 am EST

• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for October is estimated to fall to 19.8 versus 22.5 in September.

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for October is estimated at 59.0 versus 59.0 in September.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for August.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's George speaking, Eurozone Trade Balance, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for October, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and (AAPL) iPad event could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.