Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Mud and Loathing on Russia-Ukraine Border.

• Global Economic Recovery Remains Difficult. China Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli warns downside risks of global recovery at a speech at the finance minister meeting of APEC in Beijing. China's economic growth is within a reasonable range in the first three quarters, Zhang said.

• BHP(BHP) First-Quarter Iron Ore Output Rises 17% Amid Surplus. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company, said first-quarter iron ore output rose 17 percent as it continues to expand production in the face of tumbling prices. Production of the steelmaking material was 57.1 million metric tons in the three months ended Sept. 30, from 49 million tons a year earlier, Melbourne-based BHP said today in a statement. That was in line with the 56.5 million ton median estimate of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

• Asia Stocks Extend Global Rebound as Bond Risk Drops. Asian stocks rose, extending a global equity rebound, and credit risk fell to a three-week low amid speculation Europe will expand its economic stimulus. Australian bonds pared a decline after inflation slowed more than estimated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8 percent by 10:48 a.m. in Tokyo, as Japan’s Topix index added 1.6 percent and the Hang Seng Index increased 0.5 percent. 

• Fed Can Back Up Tough Talk on Bank Behavior With Action. The Federal Reserve has plenty of power to follow through on regulatory threats made yesterday to top bank executives aimed at curbing misbehavior on Wall Street, even if it can’t order firms to break up. “The Fed has a powerful bully pulpit that should not be underestimated,” Mike Mayo, an analyst at CLSA Ltd. in New York, said. “It has the authority to approve or disapprove the ability of banks to return capital to shareholders.”

• Loan Market Losing on All Fronts as CLO Rule Change Looms. The $800 billion U.S. leveraged-loan market is losing mutual-fund investors just as it’s about to need them more than ever. Regulators are approving new rules this week making it more expensive to create funds that are the biggest source of demand for the below investment-grade debt: collateralized loan obligations. Managers of the funds will be required to retain 5 percent of the debt they package or sell, or banks underwriting CLOs will have to hang on to a piece. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Companies Try to Escape Health Law’s Penalties. Some Employers Seek to Shift Employees to Medicaid; Others Plan to Offer ‘Skinny’ Benefit Plans.

• Global Growth Woes Threaten to Beset U.S. Economy. Five-Year Recovery Faces Latest Test of Resiliency as External Shocks Mount. The specter of deflation in Europe and a slowdown in China and other emerging markets are threatening to hobble the U.S. economy at a time when the world could use a reliable growth engine.

Fox News:

• Pakistani court upholds death sentence for Christian woman accused of insulting Islam. Asia Bibi was harvesting berries in Pakistan five years ago when she took the drink of water that could cost her her life. A Christian in the Muslim-dominated and increasingly intolerant nation, the mother of five was quickly assailed by the other women working the field in a tiny village in the Punjab province. First they said they would not drink from the same water bucket as a Christian. Later, they told police Bibi had insulted the Muslim Prophet Mohammad. The crime, blasphemy, is punishable by death.

CNBC:

• Icahn: 'Quite concerned that something is going to happen' with stock market. (video) The high-yield market is in a bubble, according to Carl Icahn.

• Yahoo(YHOO) needs more than just an earnings beat, say analysts. (video) 

Zero Hedge:

• VIX Has Never Done This Before... Ever. (graph)

• 19 Surprising Facts About The Messed Up State Of The US Economy.

• How Japanese Hyperinflation Starts (In 1 Chart).

• Ebola 2014 Is Mutating As Fast As Seasonal Flu. (graph)

• 113 Federal Reserve Staff Members Make $250,000 Annually.

• Chicago Hospitals Monitoring 2 Sick Passengers From Liberia, CDC Not Testing For Ebola.

• The Hedge Fund Industry's 25 Favorite ETFs.

Business Insider:

• These Two Maps Explain ISIS's Chokehold Over Iraq.

• Daimler Just Made Almost $800 Million By Selling Off Its Tesla(TSLA) Stake.

• DAVID TEPPER: Short The Euro.

• NATO Intercepts Russian Jets Over Baltic Sea.

Reuters:

• Faulty airbags warning expanded to 6.1. million U.S. cars -NHTSA. The U.S. highway safety regulator, NHTSA, expanded its warning on Tuesday about faulty airbags made by Japanese auto-part maker Takata to 6.1 million vehicles in the United States. 

• Quiet critic of Kuroda's 'monetary shamanism' turns up the volume. Izuru Kato is a soft-spoken and bookish economist, but his dismissal of the Bank of Japan's stimulus policy as "monetary shamanism" is ringing loud in the ears of bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. 

• VMware(VMW) forecasts weak 4th-qtr revenue, shares fall. Software maker VMware Inc forecast current-quarter revenue largely below Wall Street's estimates due to a delay in the closing of a large U.S. government deal and lower bookings in Germany, Russia and Japan in the third quarter. The company's shares fell as much as 6 percent in after-market trade on Tuesday.

• Intuitive Surgical(ISRG) 3rd-quarter sales top Wall St estimates. Intuitive Surgical Inc on Tuesday showed signs of bouncing back from a difficult first half of the year as sales of its da Vinci robotic surgical systems increased in the third quarter, as did procedures using the company's high-priced machines. 

• Broadcom's(BRCM) third-quarter revenue exceeds expectations. Broadcom posted higher third-quarter revenue on Tuesday that exceeded Wall Street's expectations as the chipmaker focused on networking and broadband chips, sending its shares 4 percent higher.

Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.9Brazil cuts 2014 GDP growth forecast, keeps fiscal goaFed's Williams: Can't wait too long to raise rates

Financial Times:

• Russia slaps conditions on Ukraine gas deal. Russia has raised further conditions for resuming gas supplies to Ukraine, dashing hopes that a deal to safeguard Europe’s energy supply this winter would be agreed on Tuesday.

China Securities Journal:

• China Shouldn't Be Scared of Slowing Growth. China has taken measures to prevent systemic risks including initiatives on the local govt debt problem, according to a front-page commentary written by reporter Gu Xin.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.50 -4.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 68.25 -5.0 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures +.33%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  -.06%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (DOW)/.67

• (SPG)/1.86

• (BA)/1.97

• (USB)/.78

• (ABT)/.60

• (NTRS)/.87

• (BIIB)/3.49

• (GD)/1.91

• (KNX)/.27

• (PII)/2.02

• (SWK)/1.44

• (IR)/1.03

• (NOC)/2.13

• (BSX)/.26

• (LL)/.68

• (OC)/.48

• (R)/1.63

• (NSC)/1.83

• (EMC)/.46

• (CA)/.62

• (CAKE)/.57

• (VAR)/1.21

• (T)/.64

• (TSCO)/.50

• (SLG)/1.45

• (LRCX)/.93

• (YELP)/.03

• (ORLY)/1.95

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The CPI for September is estimated unch. versus a -.2% decline in August.

• The CPI Ex Food & Energy for September is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in August.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,800,000 barrels versus a +8,923,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,560,000 barrels versus a -3,995,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,110,000 barrels versus a -1,518,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.01% versus a -1.2% decline the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BoE Minutes and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.