Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Russia’s New Aid Convoy to Rebels Riles Ukraine as Crisis Mounts. Russia is sending a convoy of more than 100 vehicles with what it says is humanitarian assistance to rebel-held territory in Ukraine, drawing accusations from the authorities in Kiev that it’s aiding separatists. The dispatch marks the eighth such mission since August by Russia, which says it’s acting to mitigate the humanitarian suffering caused by the unrest. Ukraine has called the convoys an invasion and blamed Russia for the toll on civilians. The repeated sight of trucks covered with white tarpaulins crossing from Russia underscores Ukraine’s loss of control over parts of the border amid its bloodiest conflict since the Second World War.

• Russian Warships Enter English Channel Amid Tension Over Ukraine. Russian warships entered the English Channel amid simmering tensions with the U.S. and Europe over the conflict in Ukraine. The squadron will conduct exercises in the area, according to a spokeswoman for Russia’s Northern Fleet. At least four vessels led by the anti-submarine ship Severomorsk plan drills in the expanse of water separating England from continental Europe, the state-run news service RIA Novosti said yesterday, citing a statement by the Russian Navy. NATO said the foray isn’t “alarming, it’s normal maritime traffic.” Russia is embroiled in its most serious confrontation with the U.S. and its European allies since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

• ETF Tumbles on Crude’s Plunge as Ukraine Crisis Weighs. The biggest exchange-traded fund for Russian equities plunged to a five-year low amid concern a deepening oil rout will push the world’s largest energy exporter, already beset by international sanctions, further toward a recession. The Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) sank 5.5 percent on Nov. 28 to $19.56, the lowest since April 2009, extending November’s tumble to 11 percent. The ruble, the worst performing emerging-market currency in 2014, fell for the first time below 50 versus the dollar, completing a 13 percent slide for the month.

• ECB’s Lautenschlaeger Rebuffs QE as German Opposition Grows. European Central Bank Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said quantitative easing isn’t the right policy choice for the euro area currently, hardening a split among officials over the right response to slowing inflation. “A consideration of the costs and benefits, and the opportunities and risks, of a broad purchase program of government bonds does not give a positive outcome,” Lautenschlaeger, a former Bundesbank vice president, said at an event in Berlin today. “There are very few shared competencies in fiscal policy. As long as this is the case, the ECB’s purchase of government securities is inevitably linked to a serious incentive problem.” 

• Japan Dairies Losing as Abe’s Weak Yen Boosts Corn Costs. Japan’s dairies and cake lovers just can’t seem to catch a break. A weakening yen is making it more expensive for farmers to import the U.S. corn their cows eat at a time when record crops have reduced livestock-feeding costs around the world. And while Japanese milk demand is increasing and prices of some dairy products are at record highs, domestic production is the lowest in three decades even as rising output everywhere else creates a global surplus.

• Xi Says China Will Keep Pushing to Alter Asia Security Landscape. China will continue its efforts to rewrite Asia’s security architecture to increase its influence, President Xi Jinping said in a foreign policy speech over the weekend, according to Xinhua, the state-run news agency. “We should be fully mindful of the complexity of the evolving international architecture, and we should also recognize that the growing trend toward a multi-polar world will not change,” Xi said, according to Xinhua. 

• Hong Kong Protesters Clash With Police for Street Control. Hong Kong police used batons, pepper spray and water hoses in battles with pro-democracy protesters for control of streets near the government’s headquarters, as student leaders pledged to fight on for free elections. Student leaders called this morning for people to head to the Admiralty district as demonstrators, some with makeshift shields and head gear, clashed with police along Lung Wo Road and other junctions near the main protest site in the city. Traffic was flowing on the roadway as of 9:30 a.m. local time. 

• Global Bond Yields Decline to 18-Month Low on Inflation Outlook. A gauge of government bond yields around the world fell to an 18-month low as tumbling oil prices push down inflation expectations and economic growth falters. The average yield among securities in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch World Sovereign Bond Index dropped to 1.59 percent at the end of last week, the lowest level since May 2013. Australian 10-year yields dropped below 3 percent for the first time in two years.

• Chinese Stocks in Hong Kong Fall Most in Two Weeks on PMI Data. Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong fell, sending the benchmark index to its biggest loss in two weeks, as a drop in the nation’s manufacturing gauge increased concern economic growth is slowing. Jiangxi Copper Co., the largest Chinese producer of the metal, plunged 4 percent, while PetroChina Co., the biggest oil company, declined 2.7 percent. Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., China’s second-biggest insurer, gained 2.2 percent after it said it will raise HK$36.8 billion ($4.75 billion) in a Hong Kong share sale. Airlines rallied in Shanghai as oil prices extended losses, while lenders climbed after the government said it will start an insurance system for bank deposits. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) slipped 1.2 percent to 11,003.28 at 10:51 a.m.

• Asia Stocks Fall With U.S. Futures on China, Holiday Data. Asian stocks fell with U.S. index futures as a Chinese manufacturing gauge dropped, American holiday spending slowed and oil tumbled to a five-year low. Malaysia’s ringgit headed for the biggest two-day retreat since 1998 and precious metals slumped. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) fell 0.7 percent by 11:42 a.m. in Tokyo, with Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures dropping 0.4 percent. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 2.1 percent to $64.74 a barrel, sending Australian energy stocks toward the biggest three-day loss since the global financial crisis. Gold sank as Swiss voters rejected a measure to force the central bank to hold bullion. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index fell to a four-year low as the ringgit weakened 1.2 percent. 

• Ringgit Set for Biggest Two-Day Drop Since 1998 on Oil Decline. Malaysia’s ringgit headed for its biggest two-day decline since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and led losses in emerging markets on concern a protracted slide in crude will erode the net oil-exporting nation’s revenue. The currency weakened 1.3 percent to 3.4250 per dollar as of 10:38 a.m. in Kuala Lumpur, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The ringgit has dropped 2.3 percent in two days, the sharpest decline since June 1998.

• Commodities Retreat to Five-Year Low as Oil Tumbles With Gold. Commodities fell to the lowest level in more than five years as oil sank on prospects for a glut, gold fell after Swiss voters rejected a move to force the central bank to buy more bullion and data from China confirmed a slowdown in the world’s top user of fuels and metals. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) of 22 raw materials lost as much as 1.3 percent to 111.4738, the lowest level since May 2009, and traded at 111.4777 at 11:03 a.m. in Singapore. West Texas Intermediate crude fell below $65 a barrel for the first time since July 2009, while gold, silver and copper declined.

• Miners ‘Covering Their Eyes’ on China’s Commodity Cliff. After spending $1 trillion since 2002 on projects to feed China’s commodity boom, the world’s mining companies have a lot riding on their biggest customer. While commodities may be trading at five-year lows, the heads of three top miners BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), Vale SA (VALE3) and Rio Tinto Group (RIO) last week all backed China, the world’s second-biggest economy, to keep buying increasing amounts of their products deep into the next decade. Not everyone agrees. “The commodity guys are just too optimistic,” Tao Dong, chief regional economist for Asia excluding Japan at Credit Suisse Group AG in Hong Kong, said in an interview, without referring to particular companies.

• BHP(BHP) Sees No Slowdown in Iron-Ore Supply Increase as Prices Slump. BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company, signaled there will be no slowdown in the drive by global iron-ore producers to boost production even as prices slump. “Even the iron-ore price where it is today can induce more volume,” Jimmy Wilson, BHP’s president of iron ore, said in an interview broadcast today by Australia’s Nine Network. “If that volume doesn’t come from our business, it’s going to come from other businesses around the world and other countries around the world.”

• OPEC Gusher to Hit Weakest Players, From Wildcatters to Iran. Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies’ firm stand against cutting crude output to slow the plunge in oil prices has set the energy world on a painful course that will leave the weakest behind, from governments to U.S. wildcatters. A grand experiment has begun, one in which the cartel of producing nations -- sometimes called the central bank of oil -- is leaving the market to decide who is strongest and how to cut as much as 2 million barrels a day of surplus supply. 

Wall Street Journal: 

• Bond Funds Load Up on Cash. Portfolio Managers Gird for Volatility Amid Expected Rate Increase. Large bond funds are holding the most cash since the financial crisis as portfolio managers brace for potential price swings and unruly trading ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate increase in 2015.

• Russian Firms Hire Lobbyists to Fight Senate Sanctions. Energy Company Partly Owned by Friend of Putin Spends at Least $280,000 on Effort. A Russian energy company partly owned by a friend of President Vladimir Putin has spent at least $280,000 in lobbying fees in the U.S. aimed in part at opposing a Senate bill that seeks to broaden U.S. economic sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine, according to lobbying-disclosure records.

• The Global Shakeout From Plunging Oil by Daniel Yergin. New supply—rather than demand—is dominating the market, and OPEC has been caught by surprise.  

MarketWatch.com:

• China's slowdown hits iron-ore prices. China's hunger for minerals to build skyscrapers, cars and bridges produced a decadelong surge in the price and production of key commodities. Now, exporting nations are feeling the hit as the China-fueled boom slows. Topping the list are big commodity players Australia and Brazil, but also smaller resource-rich countries, such as Guinea, Indonesia and Mongolia, where minerals make up a disproportionate share of the economy and employment.

CNBC:

• WHO: Ebola Toll Leaps Higher to Nearly 7,000 in West Africa. (video) The death toll from the worst Ebola outbreak on record has reached nearly 7,000 in West Africa, the World Health Organization said on Saturday. The toll of 6,928 dead showed a leap of just over 1,200 since the WHO released its previous report on Wednesday. The U.N. health agency did not provide any explanation for the abrupt increase, but the figures, published on its website, appeared to include previously unreported deaths. A WHO spokesperson was not immediately available for comment.

Zero Hedge:

• What Can Hong Kong And Cuba Teach Us About Economic Policy?

• The First Oil-Exporting Casualty Of The Crude Carnage: Venezuela.

• Treasury Yields Crater To 19-Month Lows After Stocks Close. (graph)

• Crude Crashes Most In Over 5 Years.

• Crude Carnage Continues After Close: WTI Now $65 Handle, Lowest Since 2009. (graph)

• As Japanese Bankruptcies Soar, Goldman Warns "Further Yen Depreciation Could Be A Net Burden". (graph)

• Macau Is 'Near Broken'.

• Italy's Temporary "Glass Half Full" Insanity. (graph)

• Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal In Over Ten Years. (graph)

• The Yellow Cab Bubble Pops: Taxi Medallion Prices Tumble 17% From Last Year's Record Highs. (graph)

• "Panic Selling" Saudi Stocks Crash Into Bear Market Following OPEC Decision. (graph)

• Swiss Gold Referendum Fails: 78% Vote Against "Protecting The Country's Wealth".

• Holiday Spending Season Begins With Decline At Brick-And-Mortar Outlets Offset By Jump In Online Purchases. (graph)

• Russia's Patience Is Wearing Thin.

• 'We Are Entering A New Oil Normal".

• The Imploding Energy Sector Is Responsible For A Third Of S&P 500 Capex. (graph)

• Retail Disaster: Holiday Sales Crater by 11%, Online Spend Declines: NRF Blames Shopping Fiasco On "Stronger Economy". (graph)

• Crude Carnage Goes Contagious As Brevan Howard Liquidates Underperforming Commodity Fund. (graph)

• "Why Anyone Believes Printing Money Will Leave Us Better Off Is Beyond Me".

• China Manufacturing PMI Drops To 8-Month Lows, Teeters On Brink Of Contraction. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Macau Is 'Near Broken'.

• CEOs Could Be Getting Ready To Revolt Against Obamacare.

• This Is The Chart Of The Year. (graph)

• Americans Bought Guns at a Record-Setting Clip on Black Friday.

• Japan Is Losing Faith In Abenomics.

• Chinese Home Prices Slide For The 7th Straight Month.

• Egypt Erupts In Protests Over Verdict For Its Ousted President.

• Uber Takes Tons Of Your Private Data — But So Does Lyft.

• The Weekend Is Over And Oil Is Getting Crushed.

• OIL GIANT WARNS: Crude Could Crash To $30.

• The Aussie Dollar Just Tanked To A 4-Year Low. (graph)

NY Post:

• Terrorists Plotting to Blow Up 5 Planes in Christmas 'Spectacular': Report. Terrorists are plotting to blow up five passenger planes from European cities as part of a Christmas “spectacular,” according to a new report. “Everyone is expecting something catastrophic very soon,” a well-placed source told Britain’s Sunday Express. “We’ve been told that five planes are being targeted in a high-profile hit before Christmas. They’ve been waiting for the big one.” A source told The Post that London authorities were the first to uncover the threat, which would involve mid-air bombings. “There is a credible threat that they’re concerned about. They’ve known about it for awhile,’’ a source said.

Mainichi:

• Majority in Japan Say Abenomics Didn't Improve Economy. 70% of Japanese say economy hasn't improved on Abenomics, according to a Mainichi poll conducted Nov. 29- Nov. 30. Among those supporting the Cabinet, 50% say economy hasn't improved on Abenomics; 91% of those opposing the Cabinet say Abenomics hasn't improved the economy.

ABC:

• Australia Govt to Lower Assumed Iron Ore Price to $60/Ton.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 +1.0 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.25 -.25 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.37%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (MFRM)/.70

• (SCVL)/.48

• (HGR)/.44

• (THO)/.81

Economic Releases
9:45 am EST

• Final Markit US Manufacturing PMI for November is estimated to rise to 55.0 versus 54.7 in October.  

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for November is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 59.0 in October.

• ISM Prices Paid for November is estimated to fall to 52.5 versus 53.5 in October.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Dudley speaking, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia Decision, Cowen Energy Conference, CSFB Tech Conference and the (BEAV) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintian losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on global growth worries, Russia/Ukraine tensions, rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst, profit-taking and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,067.56 +.72%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,067.56 +.72%

• DJIA 17,828.24 +.62%

• NASDAQ 4,791.63 +1.91%

• Russell 2000 1,173.23 +.21%

• S&P 500 High Beta 34.43 +.18%

• Wilshire 5000 21,463.11 +.68%

• Russell 1000 Growth 972.69 +1.32%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,024.03 +.09%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 506.50 +2.04%

• Solactive US Cyclical 143.37 -.08%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,019.24 +2.67%

• Transports 9,198.20 +1.60%

• Utilities 599.70 +1.0%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.05 +2.43%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 41.73 +1.33%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,186.23 +.95%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 984.45 +.22%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 231,815 +1.57%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 25 +110

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 22.73 -29.74%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 255,363 n/a

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,459,175 n/a

• Total Put/Call .74 n/a

• OEX Put/Call 7.80 +622.22%

• ISE Sentiment 74.0 -10.84%

• NYSE Arms 1.24 +29.17%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.33 -1.84%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 68.53 (new maturities)

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.77 +.92%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.03 +3.35%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,547.81 +.16%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.662 Trillion +.32%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.622 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 52.2 +6.2%

• AAII % Bears 20.8 -12.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 254.37 -5.14%

• Crude Oil 66.15 -12.47%

• Reformulated Gasoline 182.76 -9.88%

• Natural Gas 4.09 -8.38%

• Heating Oil 216.12 -9.67%

• Gold 1,175.50 -1.55%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 191.91 -2.50%

• Copper 284.60 -5.60%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 339.0 USD/Ton -8.9%

• China Iron Ore Spot 71.32 USD/Ton +1.44%

• Lumber 327.70 -.03%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,239.63 -.63%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.3% +10 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1719 +.116%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.58 +.04%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.10 -13.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.50 +14.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.9 +.1 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 44.0% chance of no change, 56.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/17

• US Dollar Index 88.36 +.09%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.20 +1.17%

• Yield Curve 170.0 -11.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.16% -17.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.446 Trillion -.15%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.47 -1.29%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 176.0 +1.82%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 28.11 -8.43%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 62.35 -2.41%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 250.11 +2.51%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.33 -5.57%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 340.72 -3.16%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 314.31 +11.07%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 323.87 -.50%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.80% -7.0 basis points

• TED Spread 22.0 -1.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 -1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.47 -3.77%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.42 -7.63%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 273.58 +1.35%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 87.0 +1.0 basis point

• M1 Money Supply $2.841 Trillion -.51%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,090.70 unch.

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 294,000 +6,500

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% -10 basis points

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.97% -2 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 374.50 -4.29%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 40.7 +2.2 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.0% +20 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.79/gallon -.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,187 -10.35%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,047.04 -.75%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 +8.33%

• Rail Freight Carloads 269,373 -1.58%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.3%

Leading Sectors

• Airlines +6.2%

• Biotech +3.4%

• REITs +2.4%

• Medical Equipment +2.4%

• Networking +1.9%

Lagging Sectors

• Construction -4.3% 

• Coal -6.6%

• Oil Tankers -8.0%

• Energy -8.5%

• Oil Service -11.5%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (23)

• FPRX, KIRK, VEEV, EIGI, BWS, NGVC, CVTI, CBPX, POST, ZAYO, BLOX, PANW, HIBB, BERY, OUTR, AVID, AERI, LORL, LQ, FIVE, CTRN, MTSI and SCAI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)

• LQDT, LOCO, DCI, GMCR, ARUN, GME and WAIR

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Russian Recession Risk Seen at Record as Oil Saps Economy. Russia will sink into recession at a Urals price of $80 a barrel, seven years after its economy grew 8.5 percent when its chief export oil blend averaged near $70, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Urals at $80, or about $3 cheaper than its average in the month through November 15, will tip Russia into a contraction, according to the median estimate of 32 economists. The probability of a recession in the next 12 months rose to 75 percent, the highest since the first such survey more than two years ago, according to another poll.

• Abe Tested by Weak Retail Sales as Japan Election Looms: Economy. Japan’s inflation slowed for a third month and retail sales fell more than forecast, showing the economy continues to struggle from a sales-tax increase as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe heads into an election next month. The Bank of Japan’s key price gauge increased 2.9 percent in October from a year earlier, equivalent to a 0.9 percent gain when the effects of April’s tax bump are excluded. Retail sales dropped 1.4 percent from September, more than a 0.5 percent decline forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

• Kuroda’s Easing ‘Incomprehensible’ to Ex-BOJ Chief Economist. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has tied the Bank of Japan’s hands with a delay in a sales-tax increase that’s hurt confidence in the nation’s finances, a former chief economist at the central bank said. Damaged trust in Abe’s pledge to cut the deficit will make it “extremely difficult” for the BOJ to exit record stimulus without risking a bond yield surge, Hideo Hayakawa said in an interview yesterday. More easing would also be tough because Governor Haruhiko Kuroda effectively has made fiscal improvement a premise for further monetary stimulus, he said. 

• Record China Downgrades Test PBOC as More Defaults Seen. Rating companies say defaults in China will spread as the central bank’s interest rate cut will do little to stop a wave of maturities from worsening record debt downgrades. Chinese credit assessors slashed grades on 83 firms this year, already matching the record number in all of 2013, according to data compiled by Shenzhen-based China Investment Securities Co. Companies must repay 2.1 trillion yuan ($342 billion) in the first six months of 2015, the most for any half, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

• Cameron to Set Out Plan to Cut Migration, Raising EU Exit Threat. David Cameron will raise the prospect of Britain leaving the European Union if fellow leaders don’t agree to let him restrict access to welfare payments for migrants. In a speech in central England today, the prime minister will demand that Europeans arriving in the U.K. receive no welfare payments or state housing until they’ve been resident for four years. He’ll say they shouldn’t receive unemployment benefits and should be removed from the country if they don’t find work within six months.

• Yen Falls Toward Seven-Year Low as Spending Slides; Aussie Drops. The yen tumbled toward a seven-year low and two-year Japanese government bond yields slid below zero after data showed household spending fell and inflation slowed.

• Commodities Slump to Five-Year Low as Crude Oil Drops on OPEC. Commodities retreated to a five-year low as crude oil tumbled after OPEC refrained from cutting output to ease a global glut. Gold and copper also declined. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) of 22 raw materials dropped as much as 1.9 percent to 115.2838, the lowest since July 2009, before trading at 115.29 by 1:26 p.m in Singapore. The index resumed trading today after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday yesterday when Brent crude dropped 6.7 percent after a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna took no action to relieve the supply glut.

Zero Hedge:

• Oil Prices Collapse After OPEC Keeps Oil Production Unchanged - Live Conference Feed. (graph)

• NATO To Deploy Tanks In Eastern Europe Shortly After VP Of Europarliament Says Ukraine-Russia War Imminent.

• Guest Post: Did They Want More Violence In Ferguson? 10 'Coincidences' Too Glaring To Ignore.

• "Now That's What I Call A Bubble". (graph)

• "We Blew It," Chuck Schumer Says Democrat Focus On Obamacare Was Wrong.

• Russia Ruble Plunges To New Record Low After OPEC Decision. (graph)

• The Absurdity Of European Sovereign QE In 1 'Tres Stupide' Chart. (graph)

• "Panicking" Ukrainians Face Soaring Prices, Warn "Inflation Is War".

• Irrational Exuberance – Descriptive Superlatives Exhaustion Point Is Reached. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The European Parliament Just Voted To Break Up Google(GOOG).

• Microsoft’s(MSFT) ComScore Numbers Have Been Changed To Hide A Massive Traffic Collapse.

• France's Stock Market Just Broke For Three And A Half Hours.

• Shanghai Stocks Just Sent A Massive Signal That The Market Has Peaked. (graph)

• The Way Mitt Romney Is Polling For 2016 Should Worry Jeb Bush — And Hillary Clinton.

• Russia's Most Powerful Oil Official Says Oil Could Fall Below $60 In The Next Few Months.

• Europe's Biggest Retailers Are Getting Crunched By Tumbling Inflation.

• The Australian Market Is Getting Crushed.

• Oil Stocks And Oil Currencies Are Getting Slammed.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.0 -1.5 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.50 unch.

• FTSE-100 futures -.27%.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.28%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• None of note

Economic Releases

• None of note.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the early close, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close Slightly Higher on Central Bank Hopes, Seasonal Strength, Short-Covering, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.o7 -1.47%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 153.65 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.63 +.66%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.38 n/a

• ISE Sentiment Index 114.0 +2.70%

• Total Put/Call .84 -13.40%

• NYSE Arms .29 -28.42% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.30 -.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.25 -.60%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 29.79 +2.87%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.63 +.16%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 269.75 +.42%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 323.88 +.34%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 22.0 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1 basis point

• Yield Curve 173.0 -2.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $68.49/Metric Tonne -1.57%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.20 -10.2 points
• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.90 +.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .8 +.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 -2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -28 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.08%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.12% 2) Telecom +.51% 3) Defense +.37%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CUB, VEEV, TASR and ADI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TMUS 2) TASR 3) PBI 4) TIBX 5) ASHR
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TASR 2) ADI 3) BDX 4) PEP 5) BLOX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Japan Is Running Out of Options by William Pesek. Minutes from the central bank's Oct. 31 board meeting, at which officials surprised the world by expanding an already massive quantitative-easing program, show that Kuroda now has a budding mutiny on his hands. Many of his staffers think the central bank has already gone too far to weaken the yen and buy virtually every bond in sight. That's a problem for Kuroda and Abe in two ways.

• Asian Stocks Rise for Fourth Day as Materials Shares Lead Gains. Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for a fourth day of gains, as materials and health-care shares advanced, countering a decline in Japan’s Topix (TPX) index amid a stronger yen. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.1 percent to 140.90 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo after rising 1.1 percent the past three trading days. Japan’s Topix slid 0.3 percent as the yen gained 0.1 percent to 117.81 per dollar after advancing 0.3 percent yesterday.

• Oil Bust of 1986 Reminds U.S. Drillers of Price War Risks. The last time that U.S. oil drillers got caught up in a price war orchestrated by Saudi Arabia, it ended badly for the Americans. In 1986, the Saudis opened the spigot and sparked a four-month, 67 percent plunge that left oil just above $10 a barrel. The U.S. industry collapsed, triggering almost a quarter-century of production declines, and the Saudis regained their leading role in the world’s oil market.

• RBA’s Lowe Sees Aussie Dollar Falling With Commodity Prices. Australia’s dollar is likely to drop in line with commodity export prices, central bank Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said, as the currency hit a four-year low. “If the exchange rate is to play its important stabilizing role, it needs to go down when the terms of trade and investment are declining,” Lowe said in a speech in Sydney late yesterday. “We have seen some adjustment, but if our assessment of the fundamentals is correct we would expect to see more in time."

Wall Street Journal:

• Justice Department Investigating Possible HSBC Leak to Hedge Fund. Investigation Comes as Part of Broader Currencies’ Market Probe.

Fox News:

• In interview, Darren Wilson says there was 'no way' Michael Brown had his hands up during shooting. The Ferguson, Mo. police officer who shot and killed an unarmed black teenager in August said in an interview aired on Tuesday that there was "no way" Michael Brown had his hands up right before he was killed -- disputing one of the core controversies at the heart of a case that touched off nationwide protests and racial unrest.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Two mini–flash crashes rock stock market Tuesday. In two separate instances Tuesday, stocks plummeted sharply for a brief period before returning to normal. At around roughly 10:18 a.m. Eastern, 88 stocks fell or rose by 1% or more. Eric Hunsader, founder of Nanex LLC, pointed out the changes on his Twitter feed.

Zero Hedge:

• Forget Ferguson, 244 Teenagers Have Been Shot In Chicago Since Michael Brown Died.

• Grant Williams: The Consequences Of Economic Peace. (video)

• "Bearish" Mark Spitznagel Profiting Strongly Since 2009, Warns "Only So Much Debt An Economy Can Take".

Business Insider: 

• This Is What Ferguson Looks Like The Day After Riots.

• Uber Will Be Valued At $40 Billion In New Round, Says Report.

• Russia Is Building A Network of Military Bases In The Arctic.

Reuters:

• Microsoft(MSFT) to Pay China $140 Million for “Tax Evasion”. China has levied about $140 million in back taxes from Microsoft in the first major case concerning cross-border tax evasion in the country, as regulators ramp up pressure on U.S. corporations doing business there.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.50 +.5 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 62.50 +.5 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures -.29%.

• S&P 500 futures +.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.16%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (DE)/1.57

• (CNQR)/.20 

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for October are estimated to fall -.6% versus a -1.3% decline in September.

• Durables Ex Transports for October are estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.2% decline in September.

• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for October are estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -1.7% decline in September.

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 288K versus 291K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2350K versus 2330K prior.

• Personal Income for October is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in September.

• Personal Spending for October is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.2% decline in September.

• The PCE Core for October is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in September.

9:45 am EST

• Chicago Purchasing Manager for November is estimated to fall to 63.0 versus 66.2 in October.

9:55 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for November is estimated to rise to 90.0 versus a prior estimate of 89.4.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales for October are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in September.

• New Home Sales for October are estimated to rise to 470K versus 467K in September.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +220,000 barrels versus a +2,608,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,363,640 barrels versus a +1,034,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -436,360 barrels versus a -2,056,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.3% versus a +1.1% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK GDP report, $29B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by metals/mining and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.