Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Says Rebel Votes Undercut Truce as Tension Mount. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said rebel-held elections in the country’s east violate a two-month-old cease-fire, as he threatened to scrap the law granting greater autonomy to the separatist regions. Calling the Nov. 2 ballots a “farce that jeopardizes the entire peace process,” Poroshenko said Ukraine will never recognize their results, according to a statement issued yesterday. Poroshenko is convening a meeting of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council today to consider revoking the “special status” law that was part of the truce accord struck Sept. 5 in the Belarus capital, Minsk.

• Saudis Lower Crude Prices to U.S. in December Amid Shale Boom. Saudi Arabian Oil Co. lowered the cost of its crude to the U.S., where production is the highest in three decades, deepening a selloff that sent prices to the lowest in more two years. The state-owned producer, known as Saudi Aramco, lowered the premium for Arab Light relative to U.S. Gulf Coast benchmarks by 45 cents a barrel to the smallest since December. medium and heavy grades were also down 45 cents and extra light oil 50 cents. Aramco increased the cost to Asia and Europe. 

• Oil Extends Slide on Saudi Price Cut as U.S. Supply Seen Rising. “It’s now a game of chicken between OPEC members and the U.S. to fight for market share” in the world’s biggest oil-consuming nation, Will Yun, a commodities analyst at Hyundai Futures Inc. in Seoul, said by phone today. “Expanding crude stockpiles in the U.S. won’t be enough to make OPEC cut its output unless prices significantly drop to below $75.”

• Japan Stocks Surge With JGBs on Stimulus; Won, Oil Slide. Japanese stocks climbed to a six-year high on optimism central-bank stimulus will boost earnings, while the country’s bonds surged. South Korea’s won led emerging-market currencies lower and crude oil extended declines. The Topix index jumped 3.3 percent by 11:06 a.m. in Tokyo, spurring a 1.5 percent jump in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. An MSCI gauge that excludes Japanese shares dropped as Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.2 percent.

• Senators Urge SEC to Fix Unequal Access to Market Data. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission must ensure its system for distributing companies’ financial information doesn’t give unfair advantages to private-feed subscribers, two lawmakers said in a letter today. The SEC should explain what it’s doing in response to findings that customers paying for direct feeds sometimes saw market-moving disclosures 10 seconds before they were posted to the agency’s website, Senators Tim Johnson and Mike Crapo wrote in the letter to SEC Chairman Mary Jo White.

• Iron Ore Declining as APEC Curbs in China Seen Stunting Demand. Iron ore prices dropped to the lowest level since September amid a lack of demand in China, with some mills in the world’s largest buyer ordered to suspend production before a summit of world leaders in Beijing. “Demand remains weak as Chinese buyers sit on the sidelines, with many Beijing steel mills forced to halt production leading up to the APEC meeting,” Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a daily report today. Prices dropped yesterday with a lack of bids, the bank said. 

Wall Street Journal:

• Sullen Voters Set to Deliver Another Demand for Change. If Republicans Win Control of Senate, It Would Be Fourth Such Control Switch in Less Than a Decade. Odds are good that the U.S. midterm elections will mark the fourth time in less than a decade that voters oust a party from control of Congress or the White House, a remarkable period of instability that has left neither party with a firm grip on power.

• U.S.-Russia Relations Slide Over Ukraine Rebel Election. Despite Threats, Washington Finds Ability to Influence Moscow Foreign Policy Limited.

• A Most Pivotal Election. Democratic candidates kept twisting away from Obama and changing the subject. Republicans didn’t cooperate. President Obama is famous for proclaiming a “pivot” to a new issue—to the economy, to jobs, to Asia. By my count he has announced more than 20 pivots during his presidency, invariably to matters that bring political benefits and away from those that don’t.

Fox News:

• Was Foley rescue delayed? (video) Administration had strong intelligence on hostages, location weeks before raid sign-off.

CNBC: 

• Herbalife(HLF) shares tank 12% on disappointing outlook. Herbalife reported earnings that missed expectations and offered a sales outlook that was well below Wall Street forecasts, sending shares plunging 13 percent. The company reported operating earnings of $1.45 per share, against analysts' estimates of $1.51 per share. Revenue of $1.26 billion missed estimates of $1.32 billion, according to Thomson Reuters data. 

• JPM(JPM) estimates legal losses could total $5.9B. JPMorgan Chase & Co. confirmed in a regulatory filing that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into its foreign-exchange trading. The company noted that its legal losses could total as much as $5.9 billion.

Zero Hedge: 

• Japan's Monetary Pearl Harbor. 

• Bubble Exit Rule: "You Only Get Out If You Panic Before Everyone Else Does".

• An Open Letter To Janet Yellen.

• How Much Does It Cost To Keep JPMorgan(JPM)FX-Riggers Out Of Jail?

• Most Transparent Administration Ever? Ferguson No-Fly Zone Was "To Keep The Media Out".

• Alan Greenspan To Marc Faber: "I Never Said The Fed Was Independent".

• 10 Examples Of The Extreme Incompetence That Now Pervades The Federal Government.

Business Insider:

• More Crisis In Ukraine After Controversial Elections.

• The White House Is Already Blaming Congress For The Midterms.

Financial Times:

• Living wills raise liquidity fears. US and European banks fear they will be forced to boost their cash reserves by tens of billions of dollars to win regulatory approval of their “living wills”, which lay out how a failing institution could be wound down in a crisis, according to people familiar with the matter.

Evening Recommendations

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.0 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.25 -.25 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures +.08%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  -.08%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (EL)/.55

• (ADM)/.73

• (IP)/.88

• (VLO)/1.57

• (BDX)/1.66

• (KBR)/.23

• (BKW)/.27

• (REGN)/2.57

• (EMR)/1.23

• (ZTS)/.37

• (CVS)/1.13

• (ODP)/.09

• (MWW)/.03

• (HCP)/.76

• (VMC)/.52

• (DISH)/.39

• (RRGB)/.34

• (BLMN)/.08

• (DISCA)/.43

• (PCLN)/21.07

• (ICE)/2.01

• (AKS)/.09

• (DVN)/1.23

• (PHH)/-.27

• (JAZZ)/2.23

• (ZOES)/.04

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for September is estimated at -$40.2B versus -$40.1B in August.

9:45 am EST

• ISM New York for October is estimated to fall to 62.0 versus 63.7 in September.

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for September are estimated to fall -.6% versus a -10.1% decline in August.

• IDB/TIPP Economic Optimism for November is estimated to rise to 46.5 versus 45.2 in October.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (SYNT) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI, Eurozone Services PMI data, weekly US retail sales reports, (AA) investor day and the (LB) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.