Monday Watch

Today's Headlines 
Bloomberg: 

• Merkel Pressed to Give Up on Greece as Germans Urge Strong Euro. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is coming under growing pressure from within the ranks of her own party bloc to give up on Greece for the sake of the euro. Members of Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc are openly challenging her stance of keeping Europe’s most-indebted country in the 19-nation currency region. Even some officials in the Finance Ministry are leaning toward the conclusion that the euro area would be better off without Greece, two people familiar with the matter said.  

• Greece Fights Default Risk While ECB Demands Progress for Funds. Warnings of an accidental default loom over debt-swamped Greece as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ anti-austerity government heads for another confrontation with an increasingly testy German-led bloc of creditors. Greece needs at least a symbolic show of progress at Monday’s meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels to persuade the European Central Bank to keep emergency funds flowing to Greek banks at the current pace. The next hurdle comes just a day later, when Greece has to pay about 750 million euros ($840 million) to the International Monetary Fund. 

• Euro Falls Before Finance Ministers Meet as Greek Deadline Looks. The euro fell to a one-week low against the dollar before European finance ministers resume talks on Greek aid on Monday. The shared currency slumped against most of its major peers as German Chancellor Angela Merkel comes under growing pressure from within the ranks of her own party bloc to give up on Greece for the sake of the euro area. The euro slid 0.3 percent to $1.1161 at 10:30 a.m. in Tokyo, after touching $1.1152, the lowest since May 5. It fell 0.3 percent to 133.73 yen.

• Ukraine Port Braces for War as Locals Learn Path to Bomb Shelter. Ukraine’s eastern port of Mariupol is bracing for attack. Army vehicles rumble down streets, windows are fortified to shield against shell damage and signs pasted to apartment blocks point people to their nearest bomb shelter. Locals fear pro-Russian separatists will unleash an assault on their city now that President Vladimir Putin has finished hosting world leaders to mark the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany. 

• It’s Not Just Greece, China’s Retreat Threatens European Bonds. European policy makers will be focused on Greek aid talks in Brussels on Monday. Investors may need to look further afield to fully explain the sell-off in the continent’s sovereign debt market. China’s foreign currency reserves had their biggest quarterly drop on record in the first three months of the year and the yuan is trading at the closest to fair value since 2010, according Goldman Sachs Group Inc. That means less demand for assets in dollars and euros from the world’s biggest creditor.

• China’s Cut-Rate Credit Rankings Raise Alarms as Defaults Loom. Few were surprised when China’s Anhui province unveiled plans in April for a 25.8 billion yuan ($4.2 billion) debt sale, part of the ruling Communist Party’s widely publicized effort to jumpstart a municipal bond market. The deal was shocking, though, for market insiders because of what they found in the fine print: Anhui will pay just 50,000 yuan for a credit rating on the bonds. That fee, from Beijing-based Golden Credit Rating International Co., is a fraction of the 250,000-yuan price floor that rival China Lianhe Credit Rating Co. says was agreed by major ratings companies under the guidance of the central bank about eight years ago.

• PBOC Cites Downward Pressure on Economy in Q&A After Rate Cuts. The following is Bloomberg’s translation of a statement from the People’s Bank of China in question and answer format that accompanied its interest rate cut announcement.

• At 1:20 P.M., China’s Great Stock Rally Mysteriously Falls Apart. It’s the most dangerous hour in the Chinese stock market -- when the world’s biggest boom suddenly goes bust. The time is 1:20 to 2:20 p.m., and its losses stand out in a rally that added 545 points, or 15 percent, to the Shanghai Composite Index over the past 30 days. In that hour alone, the equity gauge dropped 359 points. It fell in 19 of 30 sessions, the most consistent declines among rolling one-hour periods when the Shanghai bourse was open for trading. So what’s behind the losses?  

• Bond Market Tantrum Cools as Headwinds Emerge From U.S. to China. The bond market tantrum is cooling off. After a selloff that lasted for most of the past two weeks, government securities are starting to recover, based on a Bank of America Corp. index. Signs of mixed economic growth from the U.S. to China to Germany revived demand for the haven of fixed-income assets.

• Toshiba Set to Drop by Limit on Extended Accounting Probe. Toshiba Corp. was set to drop by the daily limit in Tokyo trading after the industrial and electronics group withdrew its earnings forecast because of its own probe into improper accounting on infrastructure projects.

• Sharp Slumps by Limit as Panel Maker Considers Cutting Capital. Sharp Corp. plunged by the daily limit in Tokyo after the debt-saddled Japanese display maker said it’s considering reducing its capital and issuing preferred shares to shore up its balance sheet. The shares slumped as much as 31 percent to 178 yen. The stock was trading 28 percent lower as of 9:39 a.m.

• Asia Stocks Pare Gain After China Rate Cut; Euro Falls on Greece. Asian stocks pared gains as Chinese equities fluctuated after the central bank cut interest rates for the third time in six months. The euro weakened and bonds climbed as Greece struggles to secure more aid and investors digest a mixed U.S. employment report. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent by 10:56 a.m. a.m. in Tokyo, trimming an advance of as much as 0.9 percent as stock gauges in Hong Kong and Shanghai swung between gains and losses.

Wall Street Journal: 

• IMF Works With Bank Regulators on Contingency Plans for Greek Default. Discussions with authorities in southeastern Europe aimed at girding for potential failure of bailout talks. The International Monetary Fund is working with national authorities in southeastern Europe on contingency plans for a Greek default, a senior fund official said—a rare public admission that regulators are preparing for the potential failure to agree on continued aid for Athens.

• Merkel Raps Putin Over Ukraine Conflict During Visit to Moscow. German, Russian leaders spar over history amid high-profile trip. German Chancellor Angela Merkel confronted Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin over the Ukraine crisis, balancing a tribute to Soviet losses in World War II with a rebuke of Russia’s policies today. Ms. Merkel flew to the Russian capital Sunday, a day after skipping Moscow’s vast military parade in honor of the 70th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. She joined Mr. Putin at a military wreath-laying..

• Arrests Made in Fatal Shooting of Two Mississippi Police Officers. Two suspects charged with capital murder following Hattiesburg traffic-stop shooting. Four suspects were arrested and charged in connection with the shooting deaths of two policemen after a traffic stop Saturday night in Hattiesburg, the Mississippi Bureau of Investigation said Sunday.

• China’s Smartphone Market Slows Down. With 90% of Chinese already owning a smartphone, handset makers look to win over ‘upgraders’. The world’s largest smartphone market doesn’t have much room left to grow. Smartphone shipments in China fell 4.3% in the first quarter compared with a year ago for the first time in six years, according to a new survey set to be released on Monday by International Data Corp. Rival surveys show continued growth during the quarter, but at...

• How the Clintons Worked the Angles in Haiti. Bill handled earthquake aid while Hillary was secretary of state. The nation deserved better.

Fox News:

• Saudi King Salman to miss Gulf nation summit in US. (video) Saudi Arabia's King Salman will not attend a Camp David summit of U.S. and allied Arab leaders, his foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, said Sunday. In a statement, al-Jubeir said the summit Thursday coincides with a humanitarian cease-fire in the conflict in Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition is fighting Shiite rebels known as Houthis. He said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who is also interior minister, would lead the Saudi delegation and the king's son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is defense minister, will also attend.

• 'Terrorism has gone viral': US officials, lawmakers warn of growing jihad-inspired attacks. (video) Top U.S. officials and lawmakers on Sunday intensified concerns about the growing threat of jihad-inspired terror attacks against the United States, after last week’s attempt in Texas and the dire FBI warning that followed. “I think there’s been an uptick in the stream of threats out there,” Texas GOP Rep. Mike McCaul, chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security, told “Fox News Sunday.” “We’re seeing these directives on almost a daily basis. It’s very concerning. Terrorism has gone viral.”

CNBC:

• Uber-rich! Ride share phenom's valuation may top $50B with new funding: WSJ. Uber is planning to raise another large sum of money that could propel its value to $50 billion or higher, the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, citing people familiar with the company's plans.

• Putin takes swipe at US during military parade speech. Russian president Vladimir Putin used the 70th anniversary of the end of world war two in Europe to call for a global non-bloc security system in a swipe against the US, which is boycotting the celebrations in Moscow.

Zero Hedge:

• Isolated? China & Russia Celebrate Victory Day Together, Obama Absent.

• Something Doesn't Add Up - Strong Jobs, Weak Spending, Sagging Sales. (graph)

• China Cuts Rates (Again) In Desperate Bid To Buoy Stocks, Rescue Economy. (graph)

• The Economics Of Tesla's(TSLA) PowerWall Don’t Make Sense For Most Customers In North America. (graph)

• EPS 'Beats' Lose All Meaning As Downward Revisions, Buybacks Mask Weakness.

• The 'Lumbering' US Economy. (graph)

• Chart Of The Day: Record Stock Buybacks Hit Escape Velocity. (graph)

• When Obama Talks About His "Massive Fight" With Wall Street, What Exactly Does He Refer To?

• China To Build Military Base In Africa Next To Critical Oil Transit Choke Point.

Business Insider:

• Janet Yellen is losing patience.

• Two police officers shot and killed in Mississippi.

• Central banks' plan to create market liquidity may now be having the opposite effect.

• EL-ERIAN: This is 'one of the most under-appreciated risk factors facing most investors today'.

• HERSH: The White House is lying about the killing of Osama bin Laden.

• The Senate majority leader is trying to extend the most controversial part of the Patriot Act.

Financial Times:

• US government warns hedge funds pose cyber risk. Hedge funds are a weak link in the US financial system’s defences against hackers and terrorists, the Obama administration has warned the industry. The Department of Justice has also told hedge fund investors that their data could be at risk or they could face losses if hackers breach trading systems, and it urged them to put pressure on managers to beef up cyber security.

• Fed faces limits on lending powers during crises. The Federal Reserve’s ability to give emergency loans to distressed institutions in a crisis would be restricted under legislation being prepared by lawmakers who want to stop “backdoor bailouts”. The proposed legislation — a striking challenge to the Fed from a bipartisan pair of senators — will reignite debate over whether the US succeeded in ending banks’ “too big to fail” status with its response to the financial crisis.

Telegraph:

• How the European Central Bank became the real villain of Greece's debt drama. Discretionary power exercised by the central bank has put it at the heart of Greece’s euro turmoil.

• Greece's 'war cabinet' prepares to battle EU creditors as anger mounts. The country's radical-Left leaders have concluded that there is little be gained from any further concessions to EMU creditors. 

• Why a second emerging market debt storm could be worse than the first. As the Federal Reserve moves to raise its rates, emerging markets are bracing for a second "Taper Tantrum"-style shock.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:

• Bullish on (HON) and (PSX).

• Bearish on (DDD).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 -1.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.25 -1.0 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures unch.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (MBLY)/.07

• (DF)/.18

• (DISH)/.40

• (ICPT)/-1.78

• (NAT)/.29

• (BID)/.02

• (SSYS)/.03

• (HI)/.46

• (MTZ)/.18

• (MDR)/-.09

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• Labor Market Conditions Index for April.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The BoE rate decision, BofA Merrill Health Care Conference, Deutsche Bank Clean Tech/Utilities/Power Conference, (HCP) investor day and the (FEYE) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.