Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 

Bloomberg:  

• Greece’s Split With Creditors Said to Come Down to Catering VAT. Sales tax on catering may be the largest difference between Greece and its creditors as they negotiate rescue arrangements this week, according to two European Union officials. The rate of value-added tax is the main sticking point to getting a deal, with Greece’s proposed target for 2016 still some way short of creditor demands. Creditors want savings from VAT in 2016 of 1 percent of gross domestic product and this could be achieved by raising sales tax on catering to a rate of 23 percent from 13 percent, both officials said. Greece has proposed measures that would net 0.74 percent of GDP, the first diplomat said.
• Sticking Points & Progress Made in Greek Debt Talks: Fact Sheet.
• Euro Drops as Greece Deal Would Revive ECB-Fed Policy Divergence. The euro fell as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program will send the currency toward parity against the greenback, even in the event of a debt deal for Greece. “We thus see Greece as a catalyst for EUR/$ to go near parity, via stepped up QE that moves rate differentials against the single currency,” Goldman strategists including Robin Brooks wrote in a report published June 22. The single currency fell 0.6 percent against the greenback to $1.1269 as of 12:09 p.m. in Tokyo. Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 peers, advanced 0.4 percent to 1,173.55.
• China’s Small-Cap Stocks That Led Rally Set to Enter Bear Market. The ChiNext index of smaller companies in Shenzhen was poised to enter a bear market amid concern investors were unwinding margin bets in China’s most expensive stocks. The 100-member gauge slid as much as 4.8 percent Tuesday, extending its loss from its June 3 peak to more than 20 percent. The index, which is dominated by technology shares, pared declines to 2.5 percent at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break. The ChiNext traded at a record 131 times reported earnings this month, five times the level of the Shanghai Composite Index, after the small-cap gauge tripled in just 12 months.
• China’s Stocks Plunge, Extending Steepest Slump in Seven Years. China’s stocks tumbled, extending their biggest weekly drop since the global financial crisis. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.5 percent to 4,323.34 at 11:14 a.m. local time. The gauge plunged 13 percent last week, the fastest pace among global equity gauges, amid concern valuations were unsustainable and initial public offerings were luring funds from existing equities. The ChiNext gauge of smaller companies plunged 3.5 percent, taking declines from its June 3 record to 19.9 percent, approaching a bear market.
• Asian Stocks Rise Fourth Day on Optimism About Greece Debt Talks. Asian stocks rose, following a rally in global shares, as Greece’s new measures to appease its creditors fueled optimism a deal will soon be reached. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent to 148.71 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo after jumping the most in two months on Monday.
• Planet Fitness Files for Initial Public Offering of Gym Chain. Planet Fitness Inc., the $10-per-month gym chain, filed for an initial public offering in the U.S.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Governor: Time to Furl Flag. Lawmakers in South Carolina asked to take down Confederate symbol after shooting. South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley called on Monday for the Confederate battle flag to be taken down from the Statehouse grounds, five days after the killing of nine African-Americans in a historic church. “We are not going to allow this symbol to divide us any longer,” Ms. Haley said, applause erupting as she spoke, flanked by more than 30 state political leaders in the lobby of the Statehouse.
• Trade Bill Faces Hour of Truth in Senate. Republican leader Mitch McConnell schedules Tuesday vote on fast-track bill, hopes to draw enough Democrats.
• Cheap Energy Poised to Shake Up Pipeline Industry. Williams(WMB) spurns $48 billion offer from rival, setting stage for others to bid. Low oil-and-gas prices are poised to shake up yet another part of the nation’s energy economy, spurring a merger battle among companies that own the key pipelines that move fuels around the country.
• Why the Recovery Still Limps Along. A state-by-state analysis shows that market-oriented policies work. Too bad more states aren’t using them.

Fox News: 

• National support pours in for Charleston, other AME churches in wake of attack. Support poured in from around the nation to the historically black church in Charleston, S.C., and other mainly African-American houses of worship in the wake of last week's shooting that left nine people dead during a Bible study meeting.
• New low: ISIS reportedly gives away sex slaves as 'prizes' in Koran contest. (video) ISIS has already committed countless unspeakable acts on Yazidi and Christian girls and women in Iraq, but the terrorist army may have reached a new low with a twisted new contest in which female slaves captured in war are given away as "prizes" to fighters who show the have mastered the Koran.

CNBC: 

• Latest on Greece: 48 hours to craft a deal.

Zero Hedge:

• Greece Capitulates: Tsipras Crosses "Red Line", Will Accept Bailout Extension.
• The NAR Sees "No Housing Bubble", So Here Is A Look At NAR's History Of Absolutely Disastrous Forecasts. (graph)
• Chinese Crash Continues After PBOC Cracks Down On Brokerage Liquidity. (graph)
• Wealthy Greeks Slam "Incompetent Communists Ruining The Country", Demand EU "Save" Greece.
• $140 Billion Bond Fund Goes To Cash As It "Braces For Bond-Market Collapse". (graph)
• The Fed Confirms It Is Above The Law: Yellen Tells Hensarling "No" On Leak Probe Documents.
• CEOs Now Make 300 Times More Than Their Employees (Again). (graph)
• The Euro "Young Adults Living With Their Parents" Zone.
• "Greece Is Rescued" Euphoria Fades After Europe's Close, Nasdaq Record Highs. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Think of it as housing bubble 2.0. (graph)
• Container shippers from China to Europe are experiencing the biggest 'rate collapse that this trade has experienced'. (graph)
• People in Greece are starting to say the words 'civil war' in a non-jokey way.
• Colleges are banning smartwatches to cut down on high-tech cheating.
• Corporate defaults are here.

Telegraph: 

• Greek bank run fears escalate as eurozone ministers openly discuss capital controls. Belgium's finance minister admits eurozone is considering draconian measures to stop banks from going bust as Tsipras swallows austerity.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 -3.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 57.5 -3.75 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures +.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (BBRY)/-.04
• (CCL)/.16
• (DRI)/.93
• (IHS)/1.45

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for May are estimated to fall -1.0% versus a -.5% decline in April.
• Durrables Ex Transports for May are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in April.
• Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for May are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in April.
  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in March.

9:45 am EST

• Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for June is estimated to rise to 54.1 versus 54.0 in May.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for May are estimated to rise to 523K versus 517K in April.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June is estimated to rise to 4.0 versus 1.0 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Eurozone PMI, $26B 2Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, CSFB Ag/Chemicals conference, Oppenheimer Consumer conference, Global Hunter Energy conference, JMP Securities Life Sciences conference and the (MO) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.