Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 

Bloomberg:  

• Syriza Hardliners Balk at Tsipras’ Reforms. (video)

• Marine Le Pen: Just Call Mr Mrs Frexit. (video) Marine Le Pen is distancing herself from hard-liners - and aims to ride an anti-EU wave to the French presidency. Marine Le Pen, a frontrunner in France’s 2017 presidential election, says a Greek exit from the euro is inevitable. And if it’s up to her, France won’t be far behind. “We’ve won a few months’ respite but the problem will come back,” Le Pen said of Greece in an interview at her National Front party headquarters in Nanterre, near Paris, on Tuesday. “Today we’re talking about Grexit, tomorrow it will be Brexit, and the day after tomorrow it will be Frexit.” 

• Hollande Calls Emergency Meeting After U.S. Spying Reports. French President Francois Hollande has called a high-level emergency meeting for 9 a.m. on Wednesday after WikiLeaks reported that the U.S. had spied on him and two of his predecessors.

• China Developers: Are High Onshore Ratings Hiding Risks? (video)

• Will China's Manhattan Succeed, or Crash and Burn? “Yujiapu must keep building so that banks can create fictional collaterals with which to increase lines of credit to LGFV debtors,” said Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California at San Diego who studies China’s politics and finance. “China can prevent the bankruptcy of local LGFVs and developers by ordering banks to roll over loans. However, it would take a Stalinist relocation of businesses to Yujiapu to fully occupy the office towers there.” 

• China Steelmakers Defy Profit Squeeze as Shares Ride Market Wave. (graph) China’s steelmakers are defying the weakest profit margins in seven years to outpace even the world’s best-performing stock market. An index of 28 steel producers in China is up 76 percent this year compared with the 41 percent advance in the Shanghai Composite Index, the best performer among 92 major peers tracked by Bloomberg. That’s in contrast to a gauge of industry profitability that’s tumbled to an almost seven-year low amid rising iron ore and depressed steel prices, as the attached chart of Bloomberg Intelligence data shows. 

• Generation Without Recession Leaves Aussies Unprepared for Risks. Australia is set to enter its 25th year without recession next week. For the economy, one of the longest periods of growth on record in the developed-world has actually stored up trouble. The country is increasingly relying on past momentum, as the costs of political inertia mount and a generation untouched by economic shock breeds complacency. Having shunned major policy change since the turn of the century, Australia’s economy may need to weaken further before the nation will accept reforms from any government.

• Russia Stuck at Junk as S&P Joins Moody’s Crushing Upgrade Hopes. Russia will probably be saddled with a junk credit rating for two more years, Standard & Poor’s said, joining Moody’s Investors Service in dashing expectations by officials for a higher debt grade.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hedge Funds Score Big Gains. After several lackluster years, money managers are raking in profits, fueled in part by booming M&A.

• Foreign Reserves Slip in Emerging Markets, Raising Risks. While still relatively robust, diminishing currency hoards reduce capacity to ride out crises.

Fox News:

• Barbarism by the book: New ISIS video aims to show religious purity.

MarketWatch.com:

• Is China really so ... Japanese?

Zero Hedge:

• Why The IMF Will Reject The Latest Greek Proposal In Just Two Numbers.

• Keeping Government Bureaucrats Off the Backs Of The Citizenry: The Supreme Court Responds.

• Abe Ratings Crash To Record Lows, Japan Lowers Minimum Voting Age. (graph)

• The World's Exposure To China In 6 Easy Charts. (graph)

• Confusion Reigns At PBoC As Multi-Trillion Yuan Bailout Threatens To Undermine Rate Cuts. (graph)

• The "Smart Money" Just Sold The Most Stocks In History. (graph)

• The Instability Of The Global Game Of Central Bank Chicken.

• "September It Is": The Good (Greenback), The Bad (Bonds), & The Ugly (Buillion). (graph)

Business Insider:

• Palantir is reportedly raising $500 million at a $20 billion valuation, making it the third most valuable US startup.

• Democrats vow to come up with a legal solution if Supreme Court strikes down Obamacare.

• At least 18 Chinese are dead in China's western Xinjiang province after a Ramadan attack on police.

• Netflix(NFLX) is splitting its stock 7 ways.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 57.0 -.5 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (LEN)/.64

• (MON)/2.06

• (BBBY)/.94

• (HGR)/.45

• (SCS)/.15

• (WOR)/.43

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 1Q GDP is estimated to fall -.2% versus a prior estimate of a -.7% decline.

• 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a prior estimate of a +1.8% gain.

• 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to fall -.1% versus a prior estimate of a -.1% decline.

• 1Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +.8% versus a prior estimate of a +.8% gain.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a crude oil inventory decline of -1,677,780 barrels versus a -2,676,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -388,890 barrels versus a +460,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +583,330 barrels versus a +114,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.46% versus a -1.5% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone GDP report, BoJ Minutes, $35B 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (MCK) investor day, (RHT) analyst day and the (JOE) annual meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.