Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on European Bank Worries, Yen Strength, Oil Decline, Transport/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.68 +9.97%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.31 -.93%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.46 -.32%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.24 +7.23%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 77.0 +6.94%
  • Total Put/Call 1.17 -13.97%
  • NYSE Arms .86 -42.90
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.99 +2.28%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 795.0 +2.4%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.75 +6.52%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.93 -4.93%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 48.30 +1.24%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 264.82 +.50%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.37 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +2.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 49.0 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -47.5 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.41 +.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .27% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 87.0 +5.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $61.94/Metric Tonne -.53%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.80 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.2 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.0 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.44% -3.0 basis points
  • 21.7% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 37.3% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -311 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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