Monday, August 01, 2016

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on European Bank Worries, Oil Decline, Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Energy/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.62 +6.32%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.38 +.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.45 +.21%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.17 -.69%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 -6.41%
  • Total Put/Call 1.31 +9.17%
  • NYSE Arms 1.58 +56.53
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.03 +4.21%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 773.0 -3.36%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.77 -.77%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.16 -.53%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 47.32 +.05%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 263.23 +1.07%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.35 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.5 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 51.0 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -46.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.40 -.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .25% unch.
  • Yield Curve 82.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.27/Metric Tonne +4.88%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.80 -2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.2 +.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.70 +4.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.47% -5.0 basis points
  • 18.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 36.0% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -155 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -36 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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