Friday, August 05, 2016

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Global Growth Fears, Yen Weakness, Short-Covering, Financial/Defense Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.35 -8.62%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 117.92 +.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.48 -1.35%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.44 -6.64%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 154.0 +49.51%
  • Total Put/Call .96 +6.67%
  • NYSE Arms 1.08 +3.42
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.28 -2.63%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 749.0 -3.0%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.71 -4.61%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.68 +3.09%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 45.67 -2.03%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 253.16 -1.17%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.434 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 52.0 +1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -43.75 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.69 +.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .26% unch.
  • Yield Curve 87.0 +1.5 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $60.74/Metric Tonne +2.31%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.90 +3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.2 -3.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .1 +1.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% +4.0 basis points
  • 27.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 2 meeting, 46.3% chance at Dec. 14 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +191 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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