Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Fears, Emerging Markets Currency Weakness/Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Metals & Mining/Utilities Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.24 +4.94%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.31 +1.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.24 -.39%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.41 +4.93%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 135.0 -9.4%
  • Total Put/Call .96 -7.69%
  • NYSE Arms .87 -19.95
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.80 +.88%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 651.0 +.24%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.0 -1.38%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.97 +1.6%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.01 +.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 238.34 +2.33%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.23 -.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 54.75 -4.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -48.25 +10.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.63 -.61%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .32% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 86.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.86/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.90 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.20 +.9 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.50 -1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63% unch.
  • 61.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 64.2% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +15 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +3 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -92 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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