Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Diminished Global Growth Fears, Oil Bounce, Yen Weakness, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.89 -5.43%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.13 +.60%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.33 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.29 -3.29%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 150.0 +23.97%
  • Total Put/Call .64 -28.89%
  • NYSE Arms .66 -25.89
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.64 -1.19%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 643.0 -1.54%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.0 -2.91%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.85 -.23%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.93 -.74%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 236.62 -.62%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.22 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 53.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -44.75 +3.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.82 +.25%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .32% unch.
  • Yield Curve 87.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.86/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index .80 +7.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.0 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.70 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65% +2.0 basis points
  • 62.1% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 65.3% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +146 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +40 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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