Thursday, January 05, 2017

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Worries, Yen Strength, Profit-Taking, Retail/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.82 -.25%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.88 -.47%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.34 +2.16%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.16 +1.25%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +28.4%
  • Total Put/Call 1.15 +32.18%
  • NYSE Arms .92 -9.48%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.12 -.11%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 427.0 -.64%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.19 +1.68%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.95 +4.14%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.64 -3.80%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 227.50 -2.31%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.83 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 48.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -45.0 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.22 +.66%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .52% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 119.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $78.93/Metric Tonne +2.17%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.90 +3.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.60 -1.0 basis point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.0 -1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98%-2.0 basis points
  • 31.3% chance of Fed rate hike at March 15 meeting, 45.0% chance at May 3 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -31 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +64 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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