Thursday, October 26, 2017

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:01 PM
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • Economists See China Keeping GDP Target Even Though It Shouldn't. Xi Jinping has signaled a move away from China’s growth-at-all-costs approach, even eschewing repetition of a key expansion goal when he outlined his vision for the future last week. But old habits die hard. China should scrap annual gross domestic product growth targets altogether, according to all but three economists of 17 who responded to that question in a survey by Bloomberg News Oct. 19 to 25. Yet none forecast leaders will do so. Instead, they bet China will set a target for GDP growth of "about 6.5 percent" or "6.5 percent" in 2018, according to 12 of 18 analysts polled. Five project a range of 6 percent to 6.5 percent, and one sees 6.5 percent to 7 percent.
  • Stock Gains Extend to Asia on Profit, U.S. Tax. Equity benchmarks rose in Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney as technology shares rallied following stellar profit at Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. that buoyed futures on the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index. The S&P 500 Index climbed as results from Twitter Inc. and Ford Motor Co. topped estimates, showing strength in the American economy ahead of the first reading on gross domestic product for the third quarter. The dollar maintained gains after rallying to its highest since July after the U.S. House passed a budget resolution seen as advancing the prospects for tax reform. The British pound declined on the prospect of a hard Brexit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced, though its set to finish its first down week in four, amid record low volatility. Volatility in the last 60 trading days has dropped below 6 percent to the lowest since Bloomberg started compiling the data in 1988. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.4 percent as of 9:23 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for its seventh weekly advance. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent. Macquarie Group Ltd. was largely behind the gain, up 3.3 percent, the most in almost a year to a record high, after forecasting full-year earnings to rise. South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 0.2 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures rose 0.2 percent.
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
  • Soaring Premiums Mean Soaring Risks for Obamacare. Anyone healthy is going to think twice before paying premiums that are up, say, 70 percent. So the exchanges will be left with the very ill.
  • The Fast-Food Price Wars Are About to Get Ugly. (video)
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 -.25 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 16.0 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.40 -.1%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (B)/.69
  • (COG)/.08
  • (CVX)/.97
  • (CL)/.73
  • (XOM)/.86
  • (GT)/.67
  • (LYB)/2.47
  • (MRK)/1.03
  • (PSX)/1.57
  • (COL)/1.80
  • (SPG)/2.87
  • (SOHU)/-1.12
  • (WY)/.32
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • 3Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.6% versus a +3.1% gain in 2Q.
  • 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.1% versus a +3.3% gain in 2Q.
  • The 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a +1.0% gain in 2Q.
  • 3Q Core PCE is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +.9% gain in 2Q.
10:00 am EST
  • Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for October is estimated to fall to 100.7 versus a prior estimate of 101.1.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Industrial Production report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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