Thursday, October 19, 2017

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Bubble Fears, Apple Earnings Concerns, Oil Decline, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 10.10 +.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.93 +.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.08 +.37%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 15.45 +4.11%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 67.0 -44.6%
  • Total Put/Call .99 +5.3%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -21.86%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.70 -.18%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 391.0 +.75%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.86 +1.87%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.97 -1.78%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.81 -2.10%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 173.30 -.76%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 144.59 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 27.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.50 -2.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.74 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.09% unch.
  • Yield Curve 77.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $60.88/Metric Tonne -2.93%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 1.8 +1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 53.90 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.60 -.6 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84 -2.0 basis points
  • 80.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 13 meeting, 81.9% chance at Jan. 31 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -68 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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