Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China's Total Debt Rises to About 260% of Economy. (video) 

• BOE Policy Makers Will be Wary of Making a Premature Hike. As the Bank of England considers raising interest rates for the first time in a decade in November, policy makers will be mindful that the history of central banking is littered with premature hikes. Banks including UBS AG and UniCredit have expressed concern that tightening now would be a mistake, and business groups such as the British Chambers of Commerce have called on the BOE to wait. If Governor Mark Carney raises and history proves unkind, he would join the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan in the pantheon of those who damaged economies by moving too soon.

• Asia Stocks Mixed After U.S. Drop; Yen Near Low. Asian equities were mixed after U.S. stocks fell and a gauge of equity volatility climbed, with investors assessing the recent rally in global stocks before a slew of earnings reports. The dollar was steady while the yen hovered near a three-month low. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average paused after a 15-day rally that lifted it to the highest level since 1996 after the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell Monday, pulled down by technology and industrial stocks. The euro remained weaker as Catalan separatists planned their response to Spain Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s moves to stamp his authority on the region. In China, all eyes turn to the succession plan for President Xi Jinping as the Party Congress wraps up Wednesday. Japan’s Topix index was up 0.2 percent as of 9:28 a.m. in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 was flat. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed and South Korea’s Kospi index was up 0.2 percent. Futures on the Hang Seng Index slid 0.3 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)

• House Conservatives Say Tax Bill Draft Is Coming Within Days. House and Senate leaders laid out an ambitious schedule for drafting and releasing tax legislation over the next few weeks -- a set of deadlines that must be met to try to achieve President Donald Trump’s goal of delivering major tax-rate cuts by year’s end. House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows said Monday he’s been promised that the House Ways and Means Committee will release its plan about seven days after this Thursday’s scheduled vote on a budget resolution. That would mean a bill text would be published on or before Friday, Nov. 3.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Revises Timeline on Niger Battle. Military describes what happened in the Oct. 4 ambush which marked the single deadliest U.S. military combat toll during the Trump administration.

• Republicans Face Tough Decision on Bipartisan Health Bill. Legislation has enough support to pass, but President Donald Trump opposes it, and that could prevent a floor vote.

• Supersized Family Farms Are Gobbling Up American Agriculture.

• Whirlpool(WHR) Cuts Guidance, Citing Rising Costs. Shares fell sharply in after-hours trading.

• Palladium Prices Soar in Sign of Global Growth and Auto Demand. The price of the rare metal, a key component in gasoline engines, exceeded $1,000 a troy ounce for the first time in 16 years earlier this month.

Fox News:

• Family of Las Vegas victim 'wants answers,' lawyer says, as authorities remain tight-lipped.

• Podesta news should rattle Dems on Russia. (video)

CNBC:

• 8 tax changes for 2018 you need to know.

• Venezuela's unpaid debt just grew to nearly $600 million, days before a make-or-break bill.

Zero Hedge:

• Do Shifting Democrat Talking Points Confirm That "Trump Is Unlikely To Be Implicated" In Russia Probe?

• Inventory Levels Of These GM(GM) Plants Still In "Danger Zone" Even After 2 Hurricanes And 6,000 Job Cuts.

• Uranium Deal Turns Spotlight on Hillary Clinton But Not the Way She Wanted.

• The "Nightmare Scenario" For Publishers: Facebook Is Testing A 'Pay-To-Play' Model.

• CLOs – "Safe" CDOs – Are Booming Again.

• The 4 Possible Channels For A Chinese Financial Crisis.

• The US Stock Market Just Did Something It Has Never Done Before. (graph)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 +.25 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 15.75 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.32 +.08%.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (MMM)/2.21

• (BIIB)/5.70

• (CAT)/1.27

• (CLW)/.41

• (LLY)/1.03

• (FITB)1.49

• (GM)/1.11

• (JBLU)/.52

• (LMT)/3.27

• (MCD)/1.77

• (PCAR)/1.08

• (PII)/1.23

• (PHM)/.59

• (RF)/.25

• (R)/1.31

• (SCHN)/.62

• (SHW)/4.69

• (SWK)/1.87

• (AMTD)/.46

• (UTX)/1.69

• (WAT)/1.75

• (AMD)/1.07

• (AKAM)/.59

• (T)/.75

• (COF)/2.16

• (CMG)/1.65

• (ESRX)/1.90

• (ILMN)/.99

• (IRBT)/.51

• (JNPR)/.55

• (NBR)/-.33 

• (RHI)/.70

• (TXN)/1.15

Economic Releases 

9:45 am EST

• The Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for October is estimated to rise to 53.5 versus 53.1 in September.

• The Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for October is estimated to fall to 55.2 versus 55.3 in September.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October is estimated to fall to 17 versus 19 in September.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI report and the weekly US retail sales report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaiken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.