Thursday, May 02, 2019

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Commodity/Construction Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.25 -3.72%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.45 -.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.99 -.13%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.04 -4.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +34.6%
  • Total Put/Call .91 -2.15%
  • NYSE Arms 1.09 -51.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.33 +1.39%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 454.0 +.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.55 +2.76%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 252.25 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.63 +.58%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 195.26 +1.28%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.15 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.29 -.37%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 20.50 -.5 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.19 USD/Metric Tonne +.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -55.50 +.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.90 -1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.60 -2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 -4.0 basis points
  • 15.7% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 28.6% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +12 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -135 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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