Friday, February 07, 2020

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, Global Growth Worries, Oil Decline, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.1 +7.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.62 -.54%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.92 +5.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.0 +3.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 -27
  • Total Put/Call .94 +32.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.43 +29.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.86 +1.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 624.0 +.68%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 49.12 +2.12%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -.5 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 52.98 +.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 190.17 +2.42%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 169.82 -.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 5.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.25 -1.0 point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.36 -.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .20 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 78.50 USD/Metric Tonne -2.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.40 +5.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.5 -17.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.5 -1.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.65 -1.0 basis point
  • 30.1% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 46.6% chance of cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -137 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -221 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -51 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/tech/industrial/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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