Thursday, February 20, 2020

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, Global Growth Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Healthcare Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.5 +8.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.47 +.47%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.69 +4.69%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.18 +3.45%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 -3
  • Total Put/Call .82 -1.2%
  • NYSE Arms .97 +29.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 45.45 +2.03%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 633.0 -2.5%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 48.28 +2.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 47.47 +05%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 195.84 +2.04%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 170.70 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.25 +.25 basis pointt
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 64.42 -.58%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.57% unch.
  • Yield Curve .14 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 89.05 USD/Metric Tonne +.67%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.80 +6.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -30.0 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 +1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 -2.0 basis points
  • 28.8% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 40.3% chance of cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +5 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -189 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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