Friday, February 14, 2020

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Coronavirus Fears, Global Growth Worries, Technical Selling, Commodity/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.4 +1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.48 -.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.63 -1.49%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.0 +5.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 +6
  • Total Put/Call .76 -6.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.45 +11.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.17 +.87%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 623.0 +.87%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 47.22 -1.15%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.25 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 49.18 -1.12%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 189.66 -2.32%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 170.11 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.75 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.0 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.06 +.1%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.57% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .17 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 85.45 USD/Metric Tonne -.72%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.30 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.3 -2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.1 -.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.67 unch.
  • 28.4% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 45.8% chance of cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -182 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -94 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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