Monday, February 03, 2020

Stocks HIgher into Final Hour on China Stimulus Hopes, US Economic Data, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 -4.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.72 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.78 -.59%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.78 +1.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 74.0 +1
  • Total Put/Call .67 -37.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.11 -47.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.7 +.12%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 647.0 +3.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.89 -.66%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.25 +2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.13 -1.93%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 194.44 -.87%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 170.05 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 21.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.32 +.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .20 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 77.15 USD/Metric Tonne -3.47%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.90 +8.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.90 -2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.8 +4.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61 -2.0 basis points
  • 38.0% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 57.4% chance of cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -76 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -135 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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