Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Coronavirus Fears, US Economic Data, Oil Gain, Energy/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.5 -2.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.99 +1.58%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.38 -2.15%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.26 -1.71%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 -3
  • Total Put/Call .82 +3.8%
  • NYSE Arms .63 -41.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 44.53 -.15%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 644.0 +1.8%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 47.24 +.25%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 +4.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 47.85 -1.16%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.48 +.41%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 170.57 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 12.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 64.80 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.57% unch.
  • Yield Curve .15 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 87.45 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.60 +10.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.9 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.6 -1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -1.0 basis point
  • 23.2% chance of Fed April 29th meeting, 44.1% chance of cut at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +230 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -3 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -16 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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